Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 30/09, 20:00
Prediction: KFC Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport
Team pages: KFC Merelbeke · Dessel Sport
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
KFC Merelbeke1.83
Dessel Sport1.5
1X2
KFC Merelbeke
Draw
Dessel Sport
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
KFC Merelbeke
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Dessel Sport
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KFC Merelbeke
0–1–3
Dessel Sport
(4 last)
- Dessel Sport2-1KFC Merelbeke
- KFC Merelbeke1-1Dessel Sport
- KFC Merelbeke1-5Dessel Sport
- Dessel Sport3-1KFC Merelbeke
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KFC Merelbeke 1482 · Dessel Sport 1545
| KFC Merelbeke | Draw | Dessel Sport | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dessel Sport (rating 1482 vs 1545).
- H2H favours Dessel Sport: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KFC Merelbeke | Dessel Sport | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 1.3 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KFC Merelbeke 0–1–3 Dessel Sport
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Belgium First Amateur Division | Dessel Sport | 2-1 HT 1-1 | KFC Merelbeke |
| 22/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division | KFC Merelbeke | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Dessel Sport |
| 25/01/25 Belgium First Amateur Division | KFC Merelbeke | 1-5 HT 0-1 | Dessel Sport |
| 09/11/24 Belgium First Amateur Division | Dessel Sport | 3-1 HT 2-0 | KFC Merelbeke |
Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFC Meux | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | RWD Molenbeek | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Tubize | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 4 | Union Rochefortoise | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Union Saint Gilloise II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| 6 | RAEC Mons | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 7 | RCS Onhaye | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi U23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 9 | Standard Liege II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | RSC Habay | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | ROC Charleroi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
| 12 | FC Flenu | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KFC Merelbeke | Dessel Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Belisia Bilzen SV | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Cercle Brugge Reserves | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Hoogstraten VV | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| KVC Houtvenne | 2-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: KFC Merelbeke (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KFC Merelbeke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 06/04 | OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 21/03 | KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Dessel Sport
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 11/09 | KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division |
3-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/03 | KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-3 | 4-3 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 14/03 | Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KFC Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport?
According to our model, the most likely result is a KFC Merelbeke win (45%). Probabilities: KFC Merelbeke 45%, draw 24%, Dessel Sport 31%.
How many goals are expected in KFC Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport?
The model expects 3.33 goals (KFC Merelbeke 1.83 · Dessel Sport 1.5), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in KFC Merelbeke vs Dessel Sport?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.