Football · Dominican Republic Liga · 24/09, 00:00

Prediction: Atletico Vega Real vs Jarabacoa FC

Team pages: Atletico Vega Real · Jarabacoa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Atletico Vega Real1.94

Jarabacoa FC0.74

1X2

66% 20% 14%

Atletico Vega Real Draw Jarabacoa FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Vega Real 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLLWL

Jarabacoa FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Atletico Vega Real 5–1 Jarabacoa FC (6 last)

Atletico Vega Real3-0Jarabacoa FC
Jarabacoa FC2-1Atletico Vega Real
Jarabacoa FC0-2Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real1-0Jarabacoa FC
Atletico Vega Real1-0Jarabacoa FC
Jarabacoa FC1-2Atletico Vega Real

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Vega Real 1497 · Jarabacoa FC 1414

	Atletico Vega Real	Draw	Jarabacoa FC
Our model	65%	23%	12%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Vega Real (rating 1497 vs 1414).
H2H favours Atletico Vega Real: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Vega Real	Jarabacoa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	0.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:53 +14’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Vega Real 5–0–1 Jarabacoa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/12/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	3-0 HT 2-0	Jarabacoa FC
20/09/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Jarabacoa FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Vega Real
31/05/23 Dominican Republic Liga	Jarabacoa FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Vega Real
16/04/23 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	1-0 HT 0-0	Jarabacoa FC
11/09/22 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	1-0 HT 0-0	Jarabacoa FC
07/08/22 Dominican Republic Liga	Jarabacoa FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Vega Real

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Vega Real	Jarabacoa FC
Delfines Del Este	0-1 L	0-1 L
Atlantico FC	5-0 W	2-0 W
Cibao FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Salcedo FC	1-3 L	0-2 L
Universidad O&M	2-1 W	0-4 L
Moca FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Vega Real (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Vega Real

WWLWDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
13/09	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-0	5-0	8	4	W
06/09	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	1-2	4	10	L
30/08	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
26/08	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
22/08	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/12	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-2	4-3	4	7	W
12/12	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
05/12	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
28/11	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	4	8	W

Jarabacoa FC

LLLDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
12/09	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-2	0-4	6	4	L
06/09	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
29/08	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
25/08	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
23/08	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
17/12	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-1	4	0	D
05/12	Atletico Vega Real Dominican Republic Liga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
29/11	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
23/11	Atletico Pantoja Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Vega Real vs Jarabacoa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Vega Real win (66%). Probabilities: Atletico Vega Real 66%, draw 20%, Jarabacoa FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Vega Real vs Jarabacoa FC?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Atletico Vega Real 1.94 · Jarabacoa FC 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Vega Real vs Jarabacoa FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.