Football · Dominican Republic Liga · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Universidad O&M vs Atletico Vega Real

Team pages: Universidad O&M · Atletico Vega Real

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Universidad O&M1.42

Atletico Vega Real1.28

1X2

40% 28% 33%

Universidad O&M Draw Atletico Vega Real

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad O&M 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDWWDL

Atletico Vega Real 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Universidad O&M 1–2–3 Atletico Vega Real (6 last)

Atletico Vega Real2-1Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M0-1Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real2-2Universidad O&M
Atletico Vega Real2-1Universidad O&M
Atletico Vega Real1-3Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M0-0Atletico Vega Real

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad O&M 1476 · Atletico Vega Real 1522

	Universidad O&M	Draw	Atletico Vega Real
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Vega Real (rating 1476 vs 1522).
H2H favours Atletico Vega Real: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad O&M	Atletico Vega Real
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +17’	2.25	3.30	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad O&M 1–2–3 Atletico Vega Real

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	2-1 HT 2-1	Universidad O&M
28/11/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Universidad O&M	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real
14/09/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	2-2 HT 0-1	Universidad O&M
08/03/25 Dominican Republic Cup	Atletico Vega Real	2-1 HT 1-1	Universidad O&M
29/06/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	1-3 HT 0-2	Universidad O&M
22/05/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Universidad O&M	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad O&M	Atletico Vega Real
Salcedo FC	1-2 L	1-3 L
Cibao FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Jarabacoa FC	4-0 W	3-1 W
Delfines Del Este	1-0 W	0-1 L
Moca FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad O&M (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad O&M

DLDLLDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
21/09	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-0	4-0	6	4	W
05/09	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
30/08	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
26/08	Atletico Vega Real Dominican Republic Liga	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
23/08	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/04	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
20/04	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-3	7	2	L
12/04	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	2-2	4	7	D

Atletico Vega Real

LWDWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
24/09	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
20/09	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
13/09	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-0	5-0	8	4	W
06/09	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	1-2	4	10	L
30/08	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
26/08	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
22/08	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/12	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-2	4-3	4	7	W
12/12	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad O&M vs Atletico Vega Real?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad O&M win (40%). Probabilities: Universidad O&M 40%, draw 28%, Atletico Vega Real 33%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad O&M vs Atletico Vega Real?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Universidad O&M 1.42 · Atletico Vega Real 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad O&M vs Atletico Vega Real?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.