Football · Argentina Championship Women · 25/09, 19:00
Prediction: CA Independiente Women vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Team pages: CA Independiente Women · Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
CA Independiente Women1.26
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1.93
1X2
CA Independiente Women
Draw
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
CA Independiente Women
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Independiente Women
1–1–4
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
(6 last)
- Ferro Carril Oeste (W)6-1CA Independiente Women
- Ferro Carril Oeste (W)3-1CA Independiente Women
- Ferro Carril Oeste (W)5-2CA Independiente Women
- CA Independiente Women1-1Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
- Ferro Carril Oeste (W)3-1CA Independiente Women
- CA Independiente Women4-0Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Independiente Women 1404 · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1519
| CA Independiente Women | Draw | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Market | 22% | 28% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (rating 1404 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Ferro Carril Oeste (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Independiente Women | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.4 | 1.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/33/44% | 22/67/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 2.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente Women 1–1–4 Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Argentina Championship Women | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 6-1 HT 2-1 | CA Independiente Women |
| 30/09/25 Argentina Championship Women | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 3-1 HT 1-1 | CA Independiente Women |
| 02/05/25 Argentina Championship Women | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 5-2 HT 2-2 | CA Independiente Women |
| 05/11/24 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) |
| 16/03/24 Argentina Championship Women | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 3-1 HT 2-1 | CA Independiente Women |
| 03/04/23 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis FC (W) | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Banfield (W) | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Belgrano (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors (W) | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | San Lorenzo (W) | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Lanus (W) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 9 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| 10 | River Plate (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Racing Club (W) | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 13 | Huracan (W) | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 7 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 6 |
| 15 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 3 |
| 16 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Independiente Women | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors (W) | 1-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Social Atletico Television (W) | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Huracan (W) | 3-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Belgrano (W) | 0-6 L | 1-3 L |
| Banfield (W) | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Gimnasia LP (W) | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Independiente Women
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/08 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/08 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 03/08 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 17/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 11/09 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 01/09 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 27/07 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/07 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Independiente Women vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ferro Carril Oeste (W) win (51%). Probabilities: CA Independiente Women 23%, draw 26%, Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 51%.
How many goals are expected in CA Independiente Women vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?
The model expects 3.19 goals (CA Independiente Women 1.26 · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1.93), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Independiente Women vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.