Football · Denmark Superligaen · 12/10, 19:00

Prediction: AGF Aarhus vs Sonderjyske

Team pages: AGF Aarhus · Sonderjyske

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

AGF Aarhus2.32

Sonderjyske1.26

1X2

60% 22% 18%

AGF Aarhus Draw Sonderjyske

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

AGF Aarhus 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLDLLDLD

Sonderjyske 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLLDW

Head-to-head

AGF Aarhus 3–2–1 Sonderjyske (6 last)

AGF Aarhus2-1Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske1-1AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus2-3Sonderjyske
AGF Aarhus2-1Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske1-1AGF Aarhus
Sonderjyske1-4AGF Aarhus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF Aarhus 1492 · Sonderjyske 1439

	AGF Aarhus	Draw	Sonderjyske
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGF Aarhus (rating 1492 vs 1439).
H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGF Aarhus	Sonderjyske
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.7	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 20:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.57▼	Pinn 1.58
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.46 ★
2	4.75 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:03 +2’	1.60	4.00	4.75
15:17 +2’	1.61▲	4.00	4.75
07:16 +10’	1.61	4.00	5.00▲
20:50 +9’	1.57▼	4.10▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:02 +40’	1.60	4.42	4.86
04:51 +155’	1.61▲	4.38▼	4.84▼
19:03 +288’	1.61	4.37▼	4.84
19:02 +118’	1.58▼	4.46▲	5.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF Aarhus 3–2–1 Sonderjyske

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	2-1 HT 0-0	Sonderjyske
15/03/26 Denmark Superligaen	Sonderjyske	1-1 HT 0-0	AGF Aarhus
09/11/25 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	2-3 HT 2-1	Sonderjyske
29/10/25 Denmark Cup	AGF Aarhus	2-1 HT 1-0	Sonderjyske
20/07/25 Denmark Superligaen	Sonderjyske	1-1 HT 0-1	AGF Aarhus
16/02/25 Denmark Superligaen	Sonderjyske	1-4 HT 1-3	AGF Aarhus

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	9	8	0	1	23	8	24
2	Midtjylland	9	5	4	0	17	9	19
3	FC Nordsjaelland	10	5	3	2	14	10	18
4	Viborg	9	5	2	2	15	8	17
5	Brondby	9	4	1	4	12	15	13
6	AC Horsens	9	3	2	4	15	16	11
7	Silkeborg IF	9	2	4	3	12	12	10
8	Randers FC	9	3	1	5	11	14	10
9	Odense BK	10	2	4	4	8	14	10
10	Lyngby	9	1	4	4	10	16	7
11	AGF Aarhus	9	0	5	4	11	17	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	1	2	6	12	21	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGF Aarhus	Sonderjyske
AC Horsens	2-2 D	2-5 L
FC Nordsjaelland	0-2 L	0-3 L
Midtjylland	0-2 L	2-3 L
Randers FC	1-2 L	4-2 W
Odense BK	2-2 D	0-1 L
Viborg	1-2 L	0-0 D
Lyngby	2-2 D	1-1 D
Brondby	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: AGF Aarhus (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGF Aarhus

WDDLDLLDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	2	4	D
13/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-2	8	1	D
02/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
30/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-2	15	6	D
14/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
01/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
25/07	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
17/05	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	3-1	6-2	3	4	W

Sonderjyske

LLLDLLLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	2-1	4-2	4	3	W
13/09	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
06/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-5	1	7	L
31/08	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
23/08	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
17/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-3	2-3	1	6	L
07/08	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
03/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
26/07	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	2-2	2-3	5	3	L
17/05	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-3	1-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF Aarhus vs Sonderjyske?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGF Aarhus win (60%). Probabilities: AGF Aarhus 60%, draw 22%, Sonderjyske 18%.

How many goals are expected in AGF Aarhus vs Sonderjyske?

The model expects 3.58 goals (AGF Aarhus 2.32 · Sonderjyske 1.26), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF Aarhus vs Sonderjyske?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.