Football · Denmark Superligaen · 18/10, 18:00
Prediction: FC Copenhagen vs AGF Aarhus
Team pages: FC Copenhagen · AGF Aarhus
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.29Total
FC Copenhagen2.16
AGF Aarhus1.13
1X2
FC Copenhagen
Draw
AGF Aarhus
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Copenhagen
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
AGF Aarhus
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Copenhagen
2–1–3
AGF Aarhus
(6 last)
- AGF Aarhus2-0FC Copenhagen
- FC Copenhagen2-3AGF Aarhus
- AGF Aarhus1-3FC Copenhagen
- FC Copenhagen3-1AGF Aarhus
- AGF Aarhus4-3FC Copenhagen
- AGF Aarhus1-1FC Copenhagen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Copenhagen 1610 · AGF Aarhus 1487
| FC Copenhagen | Draw | AGF Aarhus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Copenhagen (rating 1610 vs 1487).
- H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Copenhagen | AGF Aarhus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.3 | 3.2 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Copenhagen 2–1–3 AGF Aarhus
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 Denmark Superligaen | AGF Aarhus | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FC Copenhagen |
| 08/08/25 Denmark Superligaen | FC Copenhagen | 2-3 HT 0-1 | AGF Aarhus |
| 27/04/25 Denmark Superligaen | AGF Aarhus | 1-3 HT 0-1 | FC Copenhagen |
| 21/04/25 Denmark Superligaen | FC Copenhagen | 3-1 HT 1-0 | AGF Aarhus |
| 08/02/25 Europe Friendlies | AGF Aarhus | 4-3 HT 0-3 | FC Copenhagen |
| 10/11/24 Denmark Superligaen | AGF Aarhus | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FC Copenhagen |
Standings · Denmark Superligaen
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Midtjylland | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Viborg | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Brondby | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 19 | 13 |
| 7 | Silkeborg IF | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| 8 | Randers FC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 11 |
| 9 | Odense BK | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 10 |
| 10 | AGF Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 8 |
| 11 | Lyngby | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 7 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 5 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Copenhagen | AGF Aarhus |
|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Brondby | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| AC Horsens | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Odense BK | 5-0 W | 2-2 D |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Sonderjyske | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Viborg | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Randers FC | 4-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Silkeborg IF | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Lyngby | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 8 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 5 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Copenhagen (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Copenhagen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Brondby Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/09 | AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Odense BK Denmark Superligaen |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/09 | FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Viborg Denmark Superligaen |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Randers FC Denmark Superligaen |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Lyngby Denmark Superligaen |
1-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
AGF Aarhus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 02/09 | Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Randers FC Denmark Superligaen |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Odense BK Denmark Superligaen |
1-2 | 2-2 | 15 | 6 | D |
| 14/08 | Viborg Denmark Superligaen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Lyngby Denmark Superligaen |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/07 | Brondby Denmark Superligaen |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Copenhagen vs AGF Aarhus?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Copenhagen win (60%). Probabilities: FC Copenhagen 60%, draw 22%, AGF Aarhus 18%.
How many goals are expected in FC Copenhagen vs AGF Aarhus?
The model expects 3.29 goals (FC Copenhagen 2.16 · AGF Aarhus 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Copenhagen vs AGF Aarhus?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.