Football · Denmark Superligaen · 19/10, 19:00

Prediction: Viborg vs Midtjylland

Team pages: Viborg · Midtjylland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Viborg1.5

Midtjylland1.72

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Viborg Draw Midtjylland

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Viborg 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLDWW

Midtjylland 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDWDW

Head-to-head

Viborg 1–3–2 Midtjylland (6 last)

Midtjylland3-3Viborg
Viborg1-1Midtjylland
Viborg3-3Midtjylland
Midtjylland2-0Viborg
Viborg1-0Midtjylland
Midtjylland3-1Viborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Viborg 1527 · Midtjylland 1607

	Viborg	Draw	Midtjylland
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Midtjylland (rating 1527 vs 1607).
H2H favours Midtjylland: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Viborg	Midtjylland
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.60

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.90 ★
2	2.15 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.34

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +13’	2.90	3.60	2.15
17:03 +1’	2.75▼	3.60	2.25▲
03:24 +6’	2.90▲	3.60	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +426’	2.87	3.89	2.25
17:18 +39’	2.83▼	3.88▼	2.28▲
04:08 +18’	2.71▼	3.90▲	2.36▲
11:07 +26’	2.74▲	3.90	2.34▼
17:04 +73’	2.77▲	3.90	2.31▼
00:28 +54’	2.74▼	3.90	2.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Viborg 1–3–2 Midtjylland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	3-3 HT 2-2	Viborg
22/03/26 Denmark Superligaen	Viborg	1-1 HT 0-0	Midtjylland
07/12/25 Denmark Superligaen	Viborg	3-3 HT 2-0	Midtjylland
20/09/25 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	2-0 HT 0-0	Viborg
10/11/24 Denmark Superligaen	Viborg	1-0 HT 1-0	Midtjylland
29/09/24 Denmark Superligaen	Midtjylland	3-1 HT 1-1	Viborg

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	10	8	0	2	24	10	24
2	Midtjylland	10	6	4	0	19	10	22
3	Viborg	10	6	2	2	17	8	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	10	5	3	2	14	10	18
5	Brondby	10	5	1	4	17	17	16
6	AC Horsens	11	3	4	4	18	19	13
7	Silkeborg IF	10	2	5	3	15	15	11
8	Randers FC	11	3	2	6	11	16	11
9	Odense BK	10	2	4	4	8	14	10
10	AGF Aarhus	10	1	5	4	14	17	8
11	Lyngby	10	1	4	5	12	21	7
12	Sonderjyske	10	1	2	7	12	24	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Viborg	Midtjylland
Randers FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Nordsjaelland	4-1 W	2-2 D
Silkeborg IF	1-1 D	1-1 D
Lyngby	0-2 L	1-1 D
AC Horsens	3-2 W	2-1 W
FC Copenhagen	4-0 W	2-1 W
AGF Aarhus	2-1 W	2-0 W
Sonderjyske	0-0 D	3-2 W
Brondby	0-1 L	4-1 W
Odense BK	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	6 W 4 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Viborg

WLDWWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
20/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	3-1	4-1	4	2	W
13/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
04/09	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
28/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
23/08	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	3-0	4-0	1	3	W
14/08	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
07/08	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
02/08	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
24/07	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Midtjylland

WWDWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
19/09	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
14/09	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
07/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	4	1	D
02/09	AGF Aarhus Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
30/08	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Lyngby Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
26/07	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	2-2	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Viborg vs Midtjylland?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Midtjylland win (42%). Probabilities: Viborg 32%, draw 26%, Midtjylland 42%.

How many goals are expected in Viborg vs Midtjylland?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Viborg 1.5 · Midtjylland 1.72), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Viborg vs Midtjylland?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.