Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 25/09, 21:00

Prediction: Independiente FBC vs Carapegua

Team pages: Independiente FBC · Carapegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Independiente FBC1.24

Carapegua1.01

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Independiente FBC Draw Carapegua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente FBC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWDLDWWW

Carapegua 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWWD

Head-to-head

Independiente FBC 1–2–3 Carapegua (6 last)

Carapegua0-2Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC3-3Carapegua
Carapegua1-1Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC0-1Carapegua
Carapegua1-0Independiente FBC
Carapegua2-0Independiente FBC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente FBC 1567 · Carapegua 1499

	Independiente FBC	Draw	Carapegua
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente FBC (rating 1567 vs 1499).
H2H favours Carapegua: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente FBC	Carapegua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	2.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +8’	2.10	3.25	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente FBC 1–2–3 Carapegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	0-2 HT 0-2	Independiente FBC
03/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	3-3 HT 2-1	Carapegua
29/04/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	1-1 HT 0-1	Independiente FBC
19/08/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	0-1 HT 0-0	Carapegua
12/05/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	1-0 HT 0-0	Independiente FBC
08/07/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	2-0 HT 1-0	Independiente FBC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	General Caballero JLM	25	15	5	5	51	30	50
2	Deportivo Santaní	25	15	3	7	43	24	48
3	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	25	14	6	5	35	26	48
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	25	12	6	7	39	30	42
5	Independiente FBC	25	9	10	6	37	32	37
6	Sol de America	25	8	13	4	30	24	37
7	Paraguari AC	25	10	5	10	34	33	35
8	Carapegua	25	10	5	10	30	38	35
9	Resistencia FC	25	8	8	9	27	30	32
10	Fernando de la Mora	25	8	7	10	28	35	31
11	Club Atlético Tembetary	25	8	6	11	34	39	30
12	Deportivo Capiata	25	6	9	10	30	36	27
13	Guairena FC	25	6	7	12	22	33	25
14	3 de Noviembre	25	5	8	12	30	38	23
15	Encarnacion FC	25	6	4	15	25	34	22
16	Tacuary	25	3	12	10	26	39	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente FBC	Carapegua
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	4-0 W	1-0 W
Encarnacion FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Deportivo Santaní	2-1 W	0-2 L
Fernando de la Mora	0-0 D	2-0 W
3 de Noviembre	2-5 L	1-0 W
General Caballero JLM	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente FBC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente FBC

DDDWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	4-0	3	1	W
15/09	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
09/09	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
04/09	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
28/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-3	2-5	7	4	L
22/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
07/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
02/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
29/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	4	1	D

Carapegua

LWWLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
15/09	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
10/09	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/09	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
30/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
23/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
16/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
09/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente FBC vs Carapegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente FBC win (41%). Probabilities: Independiente FBC 41%, draw 29%, Carapegua 30%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente FBC vs Carapegua?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Independiente FBC 1.24 · Carapegua 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente FBC vs Carapegua?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.