Football · Nigeria Premier League · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Abia Warriors vs Niger Tornadoes

Team pages: Abia Warriors · Niger Tornadoes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Abia Warriors1.59

Niger Tornadoes0.56

1X2

62% 26% 12%

Abia Warriors Draw Niger Tornadoes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Abia Warriors 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDWLWLDD

Niger Tornadoes 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDLWDW

Head-to-head

Abia Warriors 4–1–1 Niger Tornadoes (6 last)

Abia Warriors2-1Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes1-2Abia Warriors
Niger Tornadoes1-1Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors2-1Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes1-0Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors1-0Niger Tornadoes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Abia Warriors 1501 · Niger Tornadoes 1493

	Abia Warriors	Draw	Niger Tornadoes
Our model	62%	27%	12%
Market	62%	26%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Abia Warriors: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Abia Warriors	Niger Tornadoes
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	50/33/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3	2.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.40

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:09 +53’	1.45	3.40	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Abia Warriors 4–1–1 Niger Tornadoes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/03/26 Nigeria Premier League	Abia Warriors	2-1 HT 1-0	Niger Tornadoes
02/11/25 Nigeria Premier League	Niger Tornadoes	1-2 HT 0-2	Abia Warriors
07/05/25 Nigeria Premier League	Niger Tornadoes	1-1 HT 0-0	Abia Warriors
08/12/24 Nigeria Premier League	Abia Warriors	2-1	Niger Tornadoes
25/02/24 Nigeria Premier League	Niger Tornadoes	1-0	Abia Warriors
30/09/23 Nigeria Premier League	Abia Warriors	1-0	Niger Tornadoes

Standings · Nigeria Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rivers United	9	4	5	0	13	2	17
2	Enugu Rangers	8	5	2	1	14	9	17
3	Sporting Lagos	10	4	4	2	14	12	16
4	Kano Pillars	10	3	6	1	13	12	15
5	Plateau United	9	4	2	3	15	11	14
6	Barau FC	9	3	5	1	12	9	14
7	Nasarawa United	9	4	2	3	10	8	14
8	Doma United	9	4	2	3	11	11	14
9	Ikorodu City FC	9	3	3	3	11	9	12
10	Bendel Insurance	8	4	0	4	14	13	12
11	Niger Tornadoes	9	3	3	3	8	8	12
12	Katsina Utd	9	3	3	3	10	12	12
13	Kwara United	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
14	Warri Wolves FC	9	3	2	4	6	7	11
15	Shooting Stars	9	3	2	4	10	12	11
16	Abia Warriors	9	2	4	3	9	12	10
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	2	3	4	8	15	9
18	Enyimba	9	2	2	5	11	14	8
19	Ranchers Bees	9	2	2	5	10	13	8
20	Inter Lagos	9	1	2	6	5	15	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Abia Warriors	Niger Tornadoes
Ikorodu City FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Ranchers Bees	0-4 L	0-0 D
Kun Khalifat FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Warri Wolves FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Niger Tornadoes (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Abia Warriors

LDLDWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Kwara United Nigeria Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Rivers United Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/10	Enugu Rangers Nigeria Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
27/09	Bendel Insurance Nigeria Premier League	3-0	3-0	4	2	W
23/09	Barau FC Nigeria Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
20/09	Sporting Lagos Nigeria Premier League	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
13/09	Ikorodu City FC Nigeria Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
07/09	Ranchers Bees Nigeria Premier League	–	0-4	–	–	L
30/08	Kun Khalifat FC Nigeria Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Niger Tornadoes

DWWLLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Ikorodu City FC Nigeria Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Ranchers Bees Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/10	Kun Khalifat FC Nigeria Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Nasarawa United Nigeria Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
23/09	Warri Wolves FC Nigeria Premier League	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
19/09	Katsina Utd Nigeria Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	Kano Pillars Nigeria Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
30/08	Enyimba Nigeria Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
24/05	Shooting Stars Nigeria Premier League	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
10/05	El Kanemi Warriors Nigeria Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Abia Warriors vs Niger Tornadoes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Abia Warriors win (62%). Probabilities: Abia Warriors 62%, draw 26%, Niger Tornadoes 12%.

How many goals are expected in Abia Warriors vs Niger Tornadoes?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Abia Warriors 1.59 · Niger Tornadoes 0.56), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Abia Warriors vs Niger Tornadoes?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.