Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 29/09, 20:45
Prediction: Dulwich vs Aveley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.62Total
Dulwich1.96
Aveley1.65
1X2
Dulwich
Draw
Aveley
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Dulwich
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Aveley
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dulwich
0–1–1
Aveley
(2 last)
- Aveley2-1Dulwich
- Dulwich3-3Aveley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dulwich 1543 · Aveley 1494
| Dulwich | Draw | Aveley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Market | 44% | 25% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dulwich (rating 1543 vs 1494).
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dulwich | Aveley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/67/0% | 0/67/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.7 | 3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dulwich 0–1–1 Aveley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 England Isthmian Premier Division | Aveley | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Dulwich |
| 28/10/25 England Isthmian Premier Division | Dulwich | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Aveley |
Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dartford | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Enfield Town | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Welling | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Carshalton Ath | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 18 |
| 5 | Dulwich | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 16 |
| 6 | Lewes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 16 |
| 7 | Leatherhead | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | St Albans | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 14 |
| 9 | Ramsgate | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 13 |
| 10 | Eastbourne Borough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 11 | Cray Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 12 |
| 12 | Chatham Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 11 |
| 14 | Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 15 | Aveley | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 10 |
| 16 | Maldon Tiptree FC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 9 |
| 17 | Cheshunt | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 18 | Brentwood Town | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 6 |
| 19 | AFC Whyteleafe | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 6 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 5 |
| 21 | Three Bridges | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dulwich | Aveley |
|---|---|---|
| Brentwood Town | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Leatherhead | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Three Bridges | 2-2 D | 5-1 W |
| Wingate & Finchley | 0-1 L | 3-4 L |
| Maldon Tiptree FC | 6-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Dulwich (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dulwich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/08 | Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Hashtag United England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Welling England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
Aveley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division |
1-2 | 3-4 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/08 | Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 29/04 | Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dulwich vs Aveley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dulwich win (44%). Probabilities: Dulwich 44%, draw 24%, Aveley 32%.
How many goals are expected in Dulwich vs Aveley?
The model expects 3.62 goals (Dulwich 1.96 · Aveley 1.65), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Dulwich vs Aveley?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.