Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 06/10, 20:45

Prediction: Maldon Tiptree FC vs Welling

Team pages: Maldon Tiptree FC · Welling

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Maldon Tiptree FC1.43

Welling2.09

1X2

25% 23% 52%

Maldon Tiptree FC Draw Welling

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Maldon Tiptree FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Welling 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maldon Tiptree FC 1419 · Welling 1549

	Maldon Tiptree FC	Draw	Welling
Our model	25%	23%	52%
Market	25%	24%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Welling (rating 1419 vs 1549).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maldon Tiptree FC	Welling
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.6	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 2.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	3.6 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.5	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.80

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +77’	3.60	3.80	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Welling	9	7	0	2	19	9	21
2	Dartford	9	7	0	2	15	9	21
3	Carshalton Ath	10	7	0	3	18	15	21
4	Lewes	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
5	Enfield Town	8	6	0	2	23	11	18
6	Dulwich	8	5	1	2	18	9	16
7	Leatherhead	9	4	3	2	17	15	15
8	St Albans	8	4	2	2	17	13	14
9	Ramsgate	9	4	1	4	21	13	13
10	Burgess Hill Town	8	3	4	1	15	10	13
11	Eastbourne Borough	8	4	1	3	14	11	13
12	Cray Wanderers	8	3	3	2	18	12	12
13	Chatham Town	8	4	0	4	16	13	12
14	Wingate & Finchley	8	3	2	3	13	18	11
15	Aveley	9	3	1	5	16	16	10
16	Brentwood Town	9	3	0	6	15	16	9
17	Maldon Tiptree FC	10	3	0	7	14	30	9
18	Cheshunt	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
19	AFC Whyteleafe	10	1	3	6	11	20	6
20	Three Bridges	9	1	2	6	16	28	5
21	Whitehawk	10	1	2	7	10	22	5
22	Stanway Rovers	8	1	1	6	6	21	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maldon Tiptree FC	Welling
Cray Wanderers	1-5 L	1-4 L
Ramsgate	0-2 L	1-0 W
Whitehawk	3-2 W	2-0 W
Leatherhead	4-1 W	1-4 L
Dartford	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Welling (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Maldon Tiptree FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
26/09	Egham England FA Trophy	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-5	5	2	L
19/09	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

Welling

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	4-1	10	2	W
31/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	4-0	9	7	W
11/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Billericay Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-2	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maldon Tiptree FC vs Welling?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Welling win (52%). Probabilities: Maldon Tiptree FC 25%, draw 23%, Welling 52%.

How many goals are expected in Maldon Tiptree FC vs Welling?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Maldon Tiptree FC 1.43 · Welling 2.09), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Maldon Tiptree FC vs Welling?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.