Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Burgess Hill Town vs Maldon Tiptree FC

Team pages: Burgess Hill Town · Maldon Tiptree FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Burgess Hill Town2.22

Maldon Tiptree FC1.55

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Burgess Hill Town Draw Maldon Tiptree FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Burgess Hill Town 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDWDDW

Maldon Tiptree FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burgess Hill Town 1531 · Maldon Tiptree FC 1424

	Burgess Hill Town	Draw	Maldon Tiptree FC
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgess Hill Town (rating 1531 vs 1424).
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burgess Hill Town	Maldon Tiptree FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.5	1.3 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.5 / 2.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 1	2.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	3.60 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:35 +14’	1.75	3.80	3.60
15:24 +1’	1.61▼	4.00▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dartford	9	7	0	2	15	9	21
2	Enfield Town	8	6	0	2	23	11	18
3	Welling	8	6	0	2	18	9	18
4	Carshalton Ath	9	6	0	3	15	13	18
5	Dulwich	8	5	1	2	18	9	16
6	Lewes	9	5	1	3	14	11	16
7	Leatherhead	9	4	3	2	17	15	15
8	St Albans	8	4	2	2	17	13	14
9	Ramsgate	8	4	1	3	19	10	13
10	Eastbourne Borough	8	4	1	3	14	11	13
11	Cray Wanderers	8	3	3	2	18	12	12
12	Chatham Town	8	4	0	4	16	13	12
13	Wingate & Finchley	8	3	2	3	13	18	11
14	Burgess Hill Town	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
15	Aveley	9	3	1	5	16	16	10
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	9	3	0	6	13	26	9
17	Cheshunt	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
18	Brentwood Town	8	2	0	6	13	15	6
19	AFC Whyteleafe	8	1	3	4	10	17	6
20	Whitehawk	9	1	2	6	10	21	5
21	Three Bridges	9	1	2	6	16	28	5
22	Stanway Rovers	8	1	1	6	6	21	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burgess Hill Town	Maldon Tiptree FC
Ramsgate	2-2 D	0-2 L
Whitehawk	1-1 D	3-2 W
Dartford	2-1 W	1-2 L
Leatherhead	2-2 D	4-1 W
Brentwood Town	0-2 L	1-5 L
Cray Wanderers	4-2 W	1-5 L
Dulwich	0-2 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Burgess Hill Town (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Burgess Hill Town

LWLWDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Winslow Utd England Isthmian Premier Division	–	6-2	–	–	W
12/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
22/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-2	–	–	W
18/04	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L

Maldon Tiptree FC

LWLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
26/09	Egham England FA Trophy	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-5	5	2	L
19/09	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-6	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burgess Hill Town vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Burgess Hill Town win (52%). Probabilities: Burgess Hill Town 52%, draw 23%, Maldon Tiptree FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Burgess Hill Town vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Burgess Hill Town 2.22 · Maldon Tiptree FC 1.55), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Burgess Hill Town vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.