Football · England Northern Premier League · 29/09, 20:45
Prediction: Ilkeston vs Warrington Rylands
Team pages: Ilkeston · Warrington Rylands
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Ilkeston1.31
Warrington Rylands1.6
1X2
Ilkeston
Draw
Warrington Rylands
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Ilkeston
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Warrington Rylands
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ilkeston
2–1–3
Warrington Rylands
(6 last)
- Warrington Rylands3-1Ilkeston
- Ilkeston2-2Warrington Rylands
- Ilkeston2-1Warrington Rylands
- Warrington Rylands0-1Ilkeston
- Warrington Rylands2-0Ilkeston
- Ilkeston0-1Warrington Rylands
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilkeston 1414 · Warrington Rylands 1515
| Ilkeston | Draw | Warrington Rylands | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warrington Rylands (rating 1414 vs 1515).
- H2H favours Warrington Rylands: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ilkeston | Warrington Rylands | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.3 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 17/33/50% | 25/38/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.8 | 1.6 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilkeston 2–1–3 Warrington Rylands
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England Northern Premier League | Warrington Rylands | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Ilkeston |
| 18/10/25 England Northern Premier League | Ilkeston | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Warrington Rylands |
| 29/03/25 England Northern Premier League | Ilkeston | 2-1 | Warrington Rylands |
| 23/11/24 England Northern Premier League | Warrington Rylands | 0-1 | Ilkeston |
| 27/04/24 England Northern Premier League | Warrington Rylands | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Ilkeston |
| 11/11/23 England Northern Premier League | Ilkeston | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Warrington Rylands |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | Avro FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Guiseley | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Warrington Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 17 |
| 6 | Bury | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 16 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 16 |
| 8 | Workington | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 16 |
| 9 | Gainsborough | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| 10 | Warrington Rylands | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 12 |
| 12 | Whitby | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 12 |
| 13 | Ashton Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| 14 | Hyde Utd | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 11 |
| 15 | Emley AFC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 10 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 10 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 9 |
| 18 | Bamber Bridge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 27 | 9 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 8 |
| 20 | Ilkeston | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 7 |
| 21 | Quorn | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 6 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ilkeston | Warrington Rylands |
|---|---|---|
| Workington | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Quorn | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Bury | 0-7 L | 0-1 L |
| Stockton Town | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FC United of Manchester | 3-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Warrington Rylands (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilkeston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/08 | Quorn England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Bury England Northern Premier League |
0-4 | 0-7 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/08 | Warrington Town England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Emley AFC England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
Warrington Rylands
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/08 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/08 | Quorn England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Bury England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/08 | Lancaster City England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/05 | Hednesford England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilkeston vs Warrington Rylands?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Warrington Rylands win (43%). Probabilities: Ilkeston 31%, draw 26%, Warrington Rylands 43%.
How many goals are expected in Ilkeston vs Warrington Rylands?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Ilkeston 1.31 · Warrington Rylands 1.6), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ilkeston vs Warrington Rylands?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.