Football · England Northern Premier League · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Whitby vs Lancaster City

Team pages: Whitby · Lancaster City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Whitby1.46

Lancaster City1.44

1X2

37% 26% 36%

Whitby Draw Lancaster City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Whitby 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLLWLW

Lancaster City 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDWWLL

Head-to-head

Whitby 3–2–1 Lancaster City (6 last)

Whitby1-3Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-0Whitby
Lancaster City1-2Whitby
Lancaster City0-1Whitby
Whitby3-0Lancaster City
Whitby1-1Lancaster City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Whitby 1446 · Lancaster City 1481

	Whitby	Draw	Lancaster City
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Whitby: 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Whitby	Lancaster City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/29/71%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	1.2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:38 +5’	2.38	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Whitby 3–2–1 Lancaster City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	1-3 HT 1-0	Lancaster City
01/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-0	Whitby
30/08/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Lancaster City	1-2	Whitby
05/04/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-1	Whitby
30/11/24 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	3-0	Lancaster City
27/02/24 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	1-1 HT 0-0	Lancaster City

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
3	Redcar Athletic	10	6	4	0	19	7	22
4	Guiseley	9	6	1	2	22	10	19
5	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
6	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
7	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
8	Workington	9	5	1	3	17	15	16
9	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
10	Warrington Rylands	9	4	1	4	12	13	13
11	Alfreton Town	9	4	0	5	15	10	12
12	Whitby	9	4	0	5	14	24	12
13	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
14	Hyde Utd	10	3	2	5	11	19	11
15	Emley AFC	9	2	4	3	8	15	10
16	Lancaster City	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Bamber Bridge	10	2	3	5	14	27	9
19	Stockton Town	10	2	2	6	13	20	8
20	Ilkeston	9	2	1	6	6	21	7
21	Quorn	9	1	3	5	12	23	6
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Whitby	Lancaster City
Hyde Utd	3-1 W	1-2 L
Quorn	6-3 W	2-2 D
Ashton Utd	0-2 L	1-4 L
Guiseley	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Whitby (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Whitby

DWLWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	2	1	W
31/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
29/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	6-3	–	–	W
25/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-6	2	2	L
22/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
18/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	10	2	L
15/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
08/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
25/04	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Lancaster City

WLWLLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
31/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
25/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
15/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
08/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
25/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Whitby vs Lancaster City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Whitby win (37%). Probabilities: Whitby 37%, draw 26%, Lancaster City 36%.

How many goals are expected in Whitby vs Lancaster City?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Whitby 1.46 · Lancaster City 1.44), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Whitby vs Lancaster City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.