Football · Georgia First League · 20/09, 17:00

Prediction: FC Sioni Bolnisi vs Aragvi Dusheti

Team pages: FC Sioni Bolnisi · Aragvi Dusheti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

FC Sioni Bolnisi1.77

Aragvi Dusheti1.12

1X2

52% 25% 23%

FC Sioni Bolnisi Draw Aragvi Dusheti

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Sioni Bolnisi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWDDL

Aragvi Dusheti 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWDLLL

Head-to-head

FC Sioni Bolnisi 2–2–2 Aragvi Dusheti (6 last)

Aragvi Dusheti3-2FC Sioni Bolnisi
FC Sioni Bolnisi1-1Aragvi Dusheti
FC Sioni Bolnisi3-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti1-2FC Sioni Bolnisi
FC Sioni Bolnisi0-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti2-1FC Sioni Bolnisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Sioni Bolnisi 1489 · Aragvi Dusheti 1479

	FC Sioni Bolnisi	Draw	Aragvi Dusheti
Our model	52%	26%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Sioni Bolnisi	Aragvi Dusheti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:33 +19’	1.73	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Sioni Bolnisi 2–2–2 Aragvi Dusheti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	3-2 HT 2-2	FC Sioni Bolnisi
26/04/26 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-1 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
19/10/24 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-0 HT 2-0	Aragvi Dusheti
17/08/24 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Sioni Bolnisi
11/05/24 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	0-0 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
12/03/24 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Sioni Bolnisi

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	26	14	8	4	35	27	50
2	FC Telavi	26	11	9	6	28	24	42
3	SFC Shturmi	26	10	10	6	28	23	40
4	Merani Martvili	26	10	7	9	30	29	37
5	FC Samtredia	26	10	4	12	43	40	34
6	FC Sioni Bolnisi	26	8	9	9	34	32	33
7	Aragvi Dusheti	26	9	5	12	28	36	32
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	26	8	7	11	28	36	31
9	Kolkheti Poti	26	6	9	11	33	32	27
10	FC Gori	26	6	8	12	26	34	26

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Sioni Bolnisi	Aragvi Dusheti
Merani Martvili	1-2 L	1-3 L
Kolkheti Poti	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Gareji	3-3 D	2-0 W
FC Telavi	2-1 W	0-1 L
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-0 W	0-1 L
SFC Shturmi	0-1 L	3-4 L
FC Gori	1-4 L	1-0 W
FC Samtredia	3-2 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Sioni Bolnisi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Sioni Bolnisi

WLWLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
12/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	FC Gareji Georgia First League	1-1	3-3	5	6	D
29/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
22/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
15/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
08/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	1-4	4	2	L
22/06	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/06	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-2	2-3	4	6	L
13/06	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	6	6	W

Aragvi Dusheti

DWLLWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
12/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
06/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-2	3-4	3	4	L
30/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
22/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
17/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	2-2	3-2	1	6	W
13/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Sioni Bolnisi vs Aragvi Dusheti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Sioni Bolnisi win (52%). Probabilities: FC Sioni Bolnisi 52%, draw 25%, Aragvi Dusheti 23%.

How many goals are expected in FC Sioni Bolnisi vs Aragvi Dusheti?

The model expects 2.89 goals (FC Sioni Bolnisi 1.77 · Aragvi Dusheti 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Sioni Bolnisi vs Aragvi Dusheti?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.