Football · Georgia First League · 20/09, 18:00

Prediction: SFC Shturmi vs FC Gareji

Team pages: SFC Shturmi · FC Gareji

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

SFC Shturmi1.69

FC Gareji1.1

1X2

50% 26% 24%

SFC Shturmi Draw FC Gareji

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SFC Shturmi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLLWWD

FC Gareji 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWWDLW

Head-to-head

SFC Shturmi 0–3–3 FC Gareji (6 last)

FC Gareji0-0SFC Shturmi
SFC Shturmi1-2FC Gareji
FC Gareji5-1SFC Shturmi
SFC Shturmi1-1FC Gareji
FC Gareji4-1SFC Shturmi
SFC Shturmi1-1FC Gareji

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SFC Shturmi 1512 · FC Gareji 1514

	SFC Shturmi	Draw	FC Gareji
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Gareji: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SFC Shturmi	FC Gareji
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:52 +4’	1.80	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SFC Shturmi 0–3–3 FC Gareji

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	0-0 HT 0-0	SFC Shturmi
26/04/26 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Gareji
09/11/24 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	5-1 HT 2-1	SFC Shturmi
01/09/24 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Gareji
24/05/24 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	4-1 HT 1-1	SFC Shturmi
06/04/24 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Gareji

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	26	14	8	4	35	27	50
2	FC Telavi	26	11	9	6	28	24	42
3	SFC Shturmi	26	10	10	6	28	23	40
4	Merani Martvili	26	10	7	9	30	29	37
5	FC Samtredia	26	10	4	12	43	40	34
6	FC Sioni Bolnisi	26	8	9	9	34	32	33
7	Aragvi Dusheti	26	9	5	12	28	36	32
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	26	8	7	11	28	36	31
9	Kolkheti Poti	26	6	9	11	33	32	27
10	FC Gori	26	6	8	12	26	34	26

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SFC Shturmi	FC Gareji
FC Telavi	1-1 D	0-0 D
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	2-0 W	1-2 L
Aragvi Dusheti	4-3 W	0-2 L
FC Gori	1-3 L	2-1 W
FC Samtredia	0-1 L	1-6 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-0 W	3-3 D
Merani Martvili	2-1 W	2-1 W
Kolkheti Poti	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SFC Shturmi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SFC Shturmi

LDDWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
06/09	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
29/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
22/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
08/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
22/06	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/06	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L

FC Gareji

WDLDLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
12/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-3	1-6	2	5	L
06/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	3-3	3	6	D
29/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
22/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
22/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
17/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
13/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	2-1	3-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SFC Shturmi vs FC Gareji?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SFC Shturmi win (50%). Probabilities: SFC Shturmi 50%, draw 26%, FC Gareji 24%.

How many goals are expected in SFC Shturmi vs FC Gareji?

The model expects 2.79 goals (SFC Shturmi 1.69 · FC Gareji 1.1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SFC Shturmi vs FC Gareji?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.