Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 27/09, 20:00

Prediction: EC Pelotas vs Brasil de Farroupilha

Team pages: EC Pelotas · Brasil de Farroupilha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

EC Pelotas0.95

Brasil de Farroupilha1.12

1X2

29% 33% 38%

EC Pelotas Draw Brasil de Farroupilha

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

EC Pelotas 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDDLLD

Brasil de Farroupilha 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDDWWDWDDW

Head-to-head

EC Pelotas 2–1–0 Brasil de Farroupilha (3 last)

EC Pelotas3-3Brasil de Farroupilha
EC Pelotas1-0Brasil de Farroupilha
Brasil de Farroupilha1-2EC Pelotas

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brasil de Farroupilha (rating 1465 vs 1546).
H2H favours EC Pelotas: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Pelotas	Brasil de Farroupilha
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.73

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.99 → 1.99	Pinn 1.99
X	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.80
2	3.78 → 3.78	Pinn 3.78

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:11 +61’	1.99	2.80	3.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Pelotas 2–1–0 Brasil de Farroupilha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/22 Brazil Copa Gaucho	EC Pelotas	3-3 HT 1-2	Brasil de Farroupilha
20/09/18 Brazil Copa Gaucho	EC Pelotas	1-0 HT 1-0	Brasil de Farroupilha
16/09/18 Brazil Copa Gaucho	Brasil de Farroupilha	1-2 HT 0-0	EC Pelotas

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	14	8	5	1	21	9	29
2	Veranopolis	14	7	4	3	12	6	25
3	Uniao Frederiquense	14	6	6	2	16	9	24
4	CE Bento Goncalves	14	6	6	2	17	11	24
5	Brasil de Farroupilha	13	5	7	1	13	7	22
6	Santa Cruz RS	14	5	7	2	14	10	22
7	APAFUT	14	5	6	3	18	13	21
8	Brasil de Pelotas	12	5	5	2	12	6	20
9	Aimore RS	14	5	5	4	13	13	20
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	14	3	6	5	15	20	15
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	14	3	3	8	11	15	12
12	EC Pelotas	12	2	6	4	11	15	12
13	GE Bage	14	2	6	6	9	18	12
14	GE Gloria	13	2	5	6	10	15	11
15	Gramadense	14	1	7	6	9	18	10
16	Lajeadense	14	1	2	11	5	21	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Pelotas	Brasil de Farroupilha
Gramadense	1-1 D	0-0 D
APAFUT	1-2 L	1-0 W
Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-3 L	3-3 D
CE Bento Goncalves	1-1 D	1-1 D
GE Gloria	2-1 W	0-0 D
Passo Fundo RS	3-3 D	1-0 W
Sport Clube Gaucho	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Brasil de Farroupilha (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EC Pelotas

LLDWDDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
16/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-3	15	4	L
10/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
05/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
03/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
23/08	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	5	4	D
16/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	2	8	L
14/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Brasil de Farroupilha

DDDWWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
19/09	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
16/09	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
13/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
10/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
06/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
28/08	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	2-2	5	9	D
23/08	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	5	5	D
21/08	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Pelotas vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Brasil de Farroupilha win (38%). Probabilities: EC Pelotas 29%, draw 33%, Brasil de Farroupilha 38%.

How many goals are expected in EC Pelotas vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

The model expects 2.07 goals (EC Pelotas 0.95 · Brasil de Farroupilha 1.12), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Pelotas vs Brasil de Farroupilha?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.