Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 27/09, 20:00

Prediction: Guarani de Venancio Aires vs Uniao Frederiquense

Team pages: Guarani de Venancio Aires · Uniao Frederiquense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Guarani de Venancio Aires1.06

Uniao Frederiquense1.32

1X2

29% 30% 41%

Guarani de Venancio Aires Draw Uniao Frederiquense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani de Venancio Aires 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Uniao Frederiquense 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWDDDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani de Venancio Aires 1475 · Uniao Frederiquense 1536

	Guarani de Venancio Aires	Draw	Uniao Frederiquense
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	29%	30%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Uniao Frederiquense (rating 1475 vs 1536).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani de Venancio Aires	Uniao Frederiquense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	3.9 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.00

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +11’	3.10	3.00	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	14	8	5	1	21	9	29
2	Veranopolis	14	7	4	3	12	6	25
3	Uniao Frederiquense	14	6	6	2	16	9	24
4	CE Bento Goncalves	14	6	6	2	17	11	24
5	Brasil de Farroupilha	13	5	7	1	13	7	22
6	Santa Cruz RS	14	5	7	2	14	10	22
7	APAFUT	14	5	6	3	18	13	21
8	Brasil de Pelotas	12	5	5	2	12	6	20
9	Aimore RS	14	5	5	4	13	13	20
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	14	3	6	5	15	20	15
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	14	3	3	8	11	15	12
12	EC Pelotas	12	2	6	4	11	15	12
13	GE Bage	14	2	6	6	9	18	12
14	GE Gloria	13	2	5	6	10	15	11
15	Gramadense	14	1	7	6	9	18	10
16	Lajeadense	14	1	2	11	5	21	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani de Venancio Aires	Uniao Frederiquense
Santa Cruz RS	1-1 D	0-0 D
Aimore RS	1-1 D	2-0 W
APAFUT	0-2 L	1-1 D
Lajeadense	1-0 W	2-1 W
Brasil de Farroupilha	3-3 D	1-1 D
Sport Clube Gaucho	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Uniao Frederiquense (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guarani de Venancio Aires

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
19/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
05/09	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-0	2-2	3	9	D
02/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
27/08	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	2-2	3-3	4	5	D
16/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-3	2	5	L

Uniao Frederiquense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
19/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
17/09	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
13/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
06/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
02/09	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
23/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/08	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	7	8	D
16/08	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani de Venancio Aires vs Uniao Frederiquense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Uniao Frederiquense win (41%). Probabilities: Guarani de Venancio Aires 29%, draw 30%, Uniao Frederiquense 41%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani de Venancio Aires vs Uniao Frederiquense?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Guarani de Venancio Aires 1.06 · Uniao Frederiquense 1.32), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani de Venancio Aires vs Uniao Frederiquense?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.