Football · Spain La Liga · 25/10, 21:00

Prediction: Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Team pages: Barcelona · Real Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Barcelona2.58

Real Madrid1.32

1X2

64% 19% 17%

Barcelona Draw Real Madrid

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Real Madrid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Barcelona 4–1–1 Real Madrid (6 last)

Barcelona2-0Real Madrid
Barcelona3-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-1Barcelona
Barcelona4-3Real Madrid
Barcelona2-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-5Barcelona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona 1662 · Real Madrid 1609

	Barcelona	Draw	Real Madrid
Our model	64%	19%	17%
Market	64%	19%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.89 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1662 vs 1609).
H2H favours Barcelona: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona	Real Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	3.8 / 1.1	2.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7.5	3.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X5.00

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 23:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.48▼	Pinn 1.51
X	4.50 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.25 ★
2	4.75 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 5.7% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +67’	1.57	4.50	4.75
03:11 +4’	1.60▲	4.50	4.50▼
11:13 +3’	1.50▼	4.75▲	5.25▲
12:25 +7’	1.55▲	4.75	5.00▼
23:30 +1’	1.53▼	4.75	5.00
22:58 +10’	1.48▼	5.00▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:26 +1’	1.61	4.58	4.36
22:44 +16’	1.54▼	4.76▲	4.80▲
23:29 +1’	1.59▲	4.67▼	4.71▼
00:09 +25’	1.58▼	4.69▲	4.72▲
11:08 +9’	1.58▼	4.69	4.80▲
13:44 +43’	1.56▼	4.74▲	4.92▲
11:58 +33’	1.55▼	4.77▲	5.00▲
13:40 +56’	1.54▼	4.79▲	5.06▲
20:37 +112’	1.53▼	4.83▲	5.10▲
23:31	1.53▼	4.83	5.14▲
23:46 +37’	1.53▲	4.82▼	5.10▼
08:15 +6’	1.53▼	4.84▲	5.10
08:54 +29’	1.53	4.85▲	5.11▲
16:30 +36’	1.53▼	4.87▲	5.11
17:51 +5’	1.52▼	4.88▲	5.11
17:56 +69’	1.54▲	4.85▼	5.02▼
22:25 +15’	1.50▼	5.17▲	5.09▲
22:50 +18’	1.51▲	5.15▼	5.01▼
00:56 +34’	1.50▼	5.21▲	5.06▲
12:39 +56’	1.51▲	5.16▼	4.96▼
17:11 +28’	1.51	5.15▼	4.96
19:56 +30’	1.51▼	5.16▲	5.01▲
03:12 +20’	1.51▲	5.17▲	4.94▼
04:18 +13’	1.52▲	5.17	4.90▼
04:39 +46’	1.50▼	5.24▲	5.07▲
05:29 +55’	1.50▲	5.24	5.02▼
07:41 +42’	1.50▲	5.25▲	4.95▼
09:12 +16’	1.51▲	5.25	4.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona 4–1–1 Real Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	2-0 HT 2-0	Real Madrid
11/01/26 Spain Super Cup	Barcelona	3-2 HT 2-2	Real Madrid
26/10/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-1 HT 2-1	Barcelona
11/05/25 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	4-3 HT 4-2	Real Madrid
26/04/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Barcelona	2-2 HT 1-0	Real Madrid
12/01/25 Spain Super Cup	Real Madrid	2-5 HT 1-4	Barcelona

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	34	7	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	14	9	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	13	12	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	12	15	13
7	CD Alaves	8	3	2	3	12	8	11
8	Deportivo A Coruna	8	2	4	2	12	11	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	8	6	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	13	23	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	8	18	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	11	15	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	11	17	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona	Real Madrid
Sevilla	3-1 W	1-0 W
Rayo Vallecano	5-2 W	4-1 W
Athletic Bilbao	2-0 W	4-2 W
Elche	5-0 W	3-2 W
Real Betis	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Getafe Spain La Liga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
19/09	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-1	3-1	3	1	W
16/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	4-1	7-2	18	5	W
13/09	Levante Spain La Liga	2-0	4-2	5	2	W
06/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	4	4	W
31/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	2-1	5-2	9	1	W
27/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	12	3	W
23/08	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	1	1	W
23/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-3	8	4	L
17/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	6	1	W

Real Madrid

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	9	8	W
20/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
15/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
12/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
04/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
30/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
26/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	4-1	4	6	W
22/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
17/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Real Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona win (64%). Probabilities: Barcelona 64%, draw 19%, Real Madrid 17%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona vs Real Madrid?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Barcelona 2.58 · Real Madrid 1.32), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Real Madrid?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.