Football · Argentina Nacional B · 27/09, 21:00

Prediction: Patronato Parana vs San Martin SJ

Team pages: Patronato Parana · San Martin SJ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Patronato Parana1.09

San Martin SJ0.98

1X2

36% 33% 31%

Patronato Parana Draw San Martin SJ

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Patronato Parana 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDLDWLDD

San Martin SJ 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDDWWWLD

Head-to-head

Patronato Parana 0–1–5 San Martin SJ (6 last)

San Martin SJ1-1Patronato Parana
Patronato Parana0-3San Martin SJ
San Martin SJ1-0Patronato Parana
San Martin SJ2-1Patronato Parana
Patronato Parana1-2San Martin SJ
San Martin SJ1-0Patronato Parana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Patronato Parana 1486 · San Martin SJ 1542

	Patronato Parana	Draw	San Martin SJ
Our model	36%	33%	31%
Market	36%	33%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Martin SJ (rating 1486 vs 1542).
H2H favours San Martin SJ: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Patronato Parana	San Martin SJ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X2.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:10	2.55	2.75	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Patronato Parana 0–1–5 San Martin SJ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin SJ	1-1 HT 0-0	Patronato Parana
20/10/24 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	0-3 HT 0-1	San Martin SJ
02/06/24 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin SJ	1-0 HT 1-0	Patronato Parana
24/06/23 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin SJ	2-1 HT 0-0	Patronato Parana
17/02/23 Argentina Nacional B	Patronato Parana	1-2 HT 0-0	San Martin SJ
19/08/18 Argentina Superliga	San Martin SJ	1-0 HT 0-0	Patronato Parana

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Temperley	30	14	11	5	36	24	53
2	Gimnasia Jujuy	30	15	8	7	45	36	53
3	Tristan Suarez	28	13	11	4	28	14	50
4	CA Atlanta	29	15	3	11	34	28	48
5	Ferrocarril Midland	30	13	8	9	34	25	47
6	San Martin SJ	30	12	9	9	33	27	45
7	Gimnasia y Tiro	30	12	9	9	31	27	45
8	Atletico Rafaela	30	11	9	10	25	26	42
9	Deportivo Maipu	30	11	8	11	37	31	41
10	CA Colegiales	30	11	7	12	29	30	40
11	San Martin de Tucuman	30	9	12	9	32	30	39
12	Agropecuario	30	9	9	12	26	34	36
13	Quilmes	30	9	8	13	28	27	35
14	Almagro	30	9	8	13	26	36	35
15	Nueva Chicago	29	8	8	13	21	28	32
16	Patronato Parana	29	5	15	9	23	30	30
17	Chacarita Juniors	30	8	6	16	22	31	30
18	CA Guemes	29	5	8	16	22	48	23

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Patronato Parana	San Martin SJ
CA Atlanta	2-0 W	1-0 W
Quilmes	3-3 D	0-1 L
Ferrocarril Midland	0-1 L	3-2 W
Gimnasia y Tiro	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Patronato Parana

DLDDLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
06/09	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
30/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
26/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
22/08	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	1-1	3-3	7	6	D
15/08	Colon Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
09/08	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
01/08	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	3-1	3-3	5	8	D
26/07	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
12/07	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

San Martin SJ

WLDDDWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
12/09	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
06/09	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
30/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
22/08	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-1	3	0	W
16/08	Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
26/07	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	8	6	L
12/07	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Patronato Parana vs San Martin SJ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Patronato Parana win (36%). Probabilities: Patronato Parana 36%, draw 33%, San Martin SJ 31%.

How many goals are expected in Patronato Parana vs San Martin SJ?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Patronato Parana 1.09 · San Martin SJ 0.98), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Patronato Parana vs San Martin SJ?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.