Football · Argentina Nacional B · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu

Team pages: Nueva Chicago · Deportivo Maipu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.69Total

Nueva Chicago0.99

Deportivo Maipu0.7

1X2

41% 34% 25%

Nueva Chicago Draw Deportivo Maipu

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Nueva Chicago 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWLDW

Deportivo Maipu 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLDDDW

Head-to-head

Nueva Chicago 1–3 Deportivo Maipu (4 last)

Deportivo Maipu1-0Nueva Chicago
Deportivo Maipu1-0Nueva Chicago
Deportivo Maipu0-2Nueva Chicago
Nueva Chicago1-2Deportivo Maipu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nueva Chicago 1466 · Deportivo Maipu 1521

	Nueva Chicago	Draw	Deportivo Maipu
Our model	40%	36%	24%
Market	42%	32%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.69 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Maipu (rating 1466 vs 1521).
H2H favours Deportivo Maipu: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nueva Chicago	Deportivo Maipu
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.88

23.60

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.27 ★
X	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.94
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +1’	2.20	2.88	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +4’	2.27	2.94	3.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nueva Chicago 1–0–3 Deportivo Maipu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Maipu	1-0 HT 0-0	Nueva Chicago
25/09/22 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Maipu	1-0 HT 1-0	Nueva Chicago
11/10/21 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Maipu	0-2 HT 0-2	Nueva Chicago
17/06/21 Argentina Nacional B	Nueva Chicago	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Maipu

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	30	14	12	4	31	15	54
2	Club Atletico Temperley	30	14	11	5	36	24	53
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	30	15	8	7	45	36	53
4	CA Atlanta	30	15	4	11	34	28	49
5	Ferrocarril Midland	30	13	8	9	34	25	47
6	San Martin SJ	30	12	9	9	33	27	45
7	Gimnasia y Tiro	30	12	9	9	31	27	45
8	CA Colegiales	31	12	7	12	31	31	43
9	Atletico Rafaela	30	11	9	10	25	26	42
10	Deportivo Maipu	30	11	8	11	37	31	41
11	San Martin de Tucuman	30	9	12	9	32	30	39
12	Quilmes	31	10	8	13	30	27	38
13	Agropecuario	30	9	9	12	26	34	36
14	Almagro	30	9	8	13	26	36	35
15	Nueva Chicago	30	8	9	13	22	29	33
16	Patronato Parana	30	5	16	9	24	31	31
17	Chacarita Juniors	31	8	6	17	23	33	30
18	CA Guemes	31	5	8	18	23	53	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nueva Chicago	Deportivo Maipu
Almagro	1-0 W	2-2 D
Patronato Parana	1-1 D	0-0 D
CA Colegiales	0-1 L	0-1 L
Quilmes	1-0 W	1-0 W
Ferrocarril Midland	0-2 L	0-2 L
CA Atlanta	0-1 L	4-2 W
Gimnasia y Tiro	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Maipu (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nueva Chicago

LWLLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
22/09	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
07/09	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
29/08	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
22/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
17/08	All Boys Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
09/08	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
01/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	1-1	2-1	3	9	W
25/07	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Deportivo Maipu

LWLWWLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
20/09	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	5	0	D
12/09	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
06/09	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
29/08	CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
23/08	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
08/08	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
02/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	2-2	4-2	6	5	W
26/07	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nueva Chicago win (41%). Probabilities: Nueva Chicago 41%, draw 34%, Deportivo Maipu 25%.

How many goals are expected in Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu?

The model expects 1.69 goals (Nueva Chicago 0.99 · Deportivo Maipu 0.7), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.