Football · Argentina Nacional B · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: San Martin de Tucuman vs Gimnasia y Tiro

Team pages: San Martin de Tucuman · Gimnasia y Tiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

San Martin de Tucuman1.23

Gimnasia y Tiro0.81

1X2

45% 32% 23%

San Martin de Tucuman Draw Gimnasia y Tiro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

San Martin de Tucuman 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDWDLWL

Gimnasia y Tiro 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWDLW

Head-to-head

San Martin de Tucuman 1–2 Gimnasia y Tiro (3 last)

Gimnasia y Tiro1-0San Martin de Tucuman
Gimnasia y Tiro2-0San Martin de Tucuman
San Martin de Tucuman1-0Gimnasia y Tiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Martin de Tucuman 1475 · Gimnasia y Tiro 1565

	San Martin de Tucuman	Draw	Gimnasia y Tiro
Our model	45%	32%	23%
Market	45%	32%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia y Tiro (rating 1475 vs 1565).
H2H favours Gimnasia y Tiro: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Martin de Tucuman	Gimnasia y Tiro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X2.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.82

Under 1.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +7’	2.05	2.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin de Tucuman 1–0–2 Gimnasia y Tiro

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Gimnasia y Tiro	1-0 HT 0-0	San Martin de Tucuman
26/07/25 Argentina Nacional B	Gimnasia y Tiro	2-0 HT 1-0	San Martin de Tucuman
24/03/25 Argentina Nacional B	San Martin de Tucuman	1-0 HT 1-0	Gimnasia y Tiro

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	30	14	12	4	31	15	54
2	Club Atletico Temperley	30	14	11	5	36	24	53
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	30	15	8	7	45	36	53
4	CA Atlanta	30	15	4	11	34	28	49
5	Ferrocarril Midland	30	13	8	9	34	25	47
6	San Martin SJ	30	12	9	9	33	27	45
7	Gimnasia y Tiro	30	12	9	9	31	27	45
8	CA Colegiales	31	12	7	12	31	31	43
9	Atletico Rafaela	30	11	9	10	25	26	42
10	Deportivo Maipu	30	11	8	11	37	31	41
11	San Martin de Tucuman	30	9	12	9	32	30	39
12	Quilmes	31	10	8	13	30	27	38
13	Agropecuario	30	9	9	12	26	34	36
14	Almagro	30	9	8	13	26	36	35
15	Nueva Chicago	30	8	9	13	22	29	33
16	Patronato Parana	30	5	16	9	24	31	31
17	Chacarita Juniors	31	8	6	17	23	33	30
18	CA Guemes	31	5	8	18	23	53	23

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Martin de Tucuman	Gimnasia y Tiro
Atletico Rafaela	2-4 L	1-0 W
Agropecuario	3-0 W	0-1 L
Tristan Suarez	0-2 L	0-0 D
CA Guemes	1-1 D	3-1 W
Chacarita Juniors	2-1 W	1-0 W
San Martin SJ	1-1 D	1-3 L
Nueva Chicago	1-2 L	2-0 W
Club Atletico Temperley	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gimnasia y Tiro (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Martin de Tucuman

DLLDDWDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	2-2	2-4	4	6	L
13/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-0	3-0	7	5	W
05/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	0	2	L
30/08	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
23/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
16/08	Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
09/08	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-2	8	9	L
26/07	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
17/07	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	8	D

Gimnasia y Tiro

WWWDLWWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
20/09	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
12/09	Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
06/09	CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-1	3	1	W
29/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
22/08	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-3	3	0	L
16/08	Central Norte Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
09/08	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
05/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/08	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	2-0	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Martin de Tucuman vs Gimnasia y Tiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin de Tucuman win (45%). Probabilities: San Martin de Tucuman 45%, draw 32%, Gimnasia y Tiro 23%.

How many goals are expected in San Martin de Tucuman vs Gimnasia y Tiro?

The model expects 2.04 goals (San Martin de Tucuman 1.23 · Gimnasia y Tiro 0.81), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Martin de Tucuman vs Gimnasia y Tiro?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.