Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 10/10, 16:30

Prediction: Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam

Team pages: Go Ahead Eagles · Sparta Rotterdam

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Go Ahead Eagles2.29

Sparta Rotterdam1.49

1X2

54% 22% 23%

Go Ahead Eagles Draw Sparta Rotterdam

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Go Ahead Eagles 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Sparta Rotterdam 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Go Ahead Eagles 3–2–1 Sparta Rotterdam (6 last)

Sparta Rotterdam2-2Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles0-3Sparta Rotterdam
Go Ahead Eagles1-0Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam1-1Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam1-2Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam0-2Go Ahead Eagles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Go Ahead Eagles 1515 · Sparta Rotterdam 1421

	Go Ahead Eagles	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam
Our model	55%	21%	24%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Go Ahead Eagles (rating 1515 vs 1421).
H2H favours Go Ahead Eagles: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Go Ahead Eagles	Sparta Rotterdam
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.2	1.4 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6.2	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.37 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:50 +2’	1.73	4.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +622’	1.75	3.98	4.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Go Ahead Eagles 3–2–1 Sparta Rotterdam

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	2-2 HT 1-0	Go Ahead Eagles
23/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	0-3 HT 0-1	Sparta Rotterdam
14/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	1-0 HT 1-0	Sparta Rotterdam
18/12/24 Netherlands Cup	Sparta Rotterdam	1-1 HT 0-1	Go Ahead Eagles
15/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	1-2 HT 0-1	Go Ahead Eagles
21/01/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	0-2 HT 0-1	Go Ahead Eagles

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	17
3	PSV	7	5	1	1	24	10	16
4	FC Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	11
8	FC Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
11	NEC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Cambuur Leeuwarden	7	1	2	4	10	19	5
15	FC Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Go Ahead Eagles	Sparta Rotterdam
FC Utrecht	3-3 D	3-3 D
Feyenoord	2-2 D	0-1 L
PSV	1-4 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Go Ahead Eagles (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Go Ahead Eagles

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
12/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
08/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-3	5	3	D
29/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-5	4	0	L
23/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-2	6	0	D
08/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	3	W
17/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
10/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	8	0	L
03/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D

Sparta Rotterdam

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
13/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	5	2	L
04/09	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	15	2	D
29/08	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
22/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	5	0	D
14/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
09/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
17/05	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
10/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-4	2	2	L
03/05	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Go Ahead Eagles win (54%). Probabilities: Go Ahead Eagles 54%, draw 22%, Sparta Rotterdam 23%.

How many goals are expected in Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Go Ahead Eagles 2.29 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.49), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.