Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 09/10, 20:00

Prediction: PSV vs Heerenveen

Team pages: PSV · Heerenveen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.14Total

PSV3.03

Heerenveen1.1

1X2

75% 14% 10%

PSV Draw Heerenveen

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

PSV 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWWWWL

Heerenveen 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLDLDW

Head-to-head

PSV 5–1 Heerenveen (6 last)

PSV3-1Heerenveen
PSV4-1Heerenveen
Heerenveen0-2PSV
PSV2-1Heerenveen
Heerenveen1-0PSV
Heerenveen0-8PSV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSV 1597 · Heerenveen 1495

	PSV	Draw	Heerenveen
Our model	75%	15%	10%
Market	76%	14%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 4.14 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV (rating 1597 vs 1495).
H2H favours PSV: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSV	Heerenveen
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.2	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.23
X	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 7.37 ★
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:42 +7’	1.22	6.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +348’	1.23	7.37	8.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV 5–0–1 Heerenveen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	3-1 HT 1-1	Heerenveen
04/02/26 Netherlands Cup	PSV	4-1 HT 2-0	Heerenveen
06/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	0-2 HT 0-2	PSV
08/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	2-1 HT 1-0	Heerenveen
14/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	1-0 HT 0-0	PSV
25/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	0-8 HT 0-5	PSV

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	17
3	PSV	7	5	1	1	24	10	16
4	FC Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	11
8	FC Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
11	NEC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Cambuur Leeuwarden	7	1	2	4	10	19	5
15	FC Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSV	Heerenveen
FC Twente	2-3 L	1-0 W
Sparta Rotterdam	4-1 W	4-0 W
Ajax	3-1 W	2-2 D
FC Utrecht	6-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PSV

DWWDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
13/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	4-1	9	2	W
05/09	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	6-1	13	6	W
23/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	3-1	5-1	9	2	W
15/08	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
08/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
17/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-1	11	2	W
10/05	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	4-1	4	0	W
02/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	3	D

Heerenveen

LDLWDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
13/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
06/09	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
30/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
09/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-3	6	1	L
17/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
11/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSV vs Heerenveen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSV win (75%). Probabilities: PSV 75%, draw 14%, Heerenveen 10%.

How many goals are expected in PSV vs Heerenveen?

The model expects 4.14 goals (PSV 3.03 · Heerenveen 1.1), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in PSV vs Heerenveen?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.