Prediction: Monaco vs Toulouse
- Toulouse2-2Monaco
- Monaco1-0Toulouse
- Toulouse1-1Monaco
- Monaco2-0Toulouse
- Monaco1-2Toulouse
- Toulouse1-2Monaco
| Monaco | Draw | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monaco (rating 1585 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Monaco: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monaco | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.1 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monaco 3–2–1 Toulouse
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Monaco |
| 25/10/25 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Toulouse |
| 07/03/25 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Monaco |
| 07/12/24 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Toulouse |
| 18/02/24 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Toulouse |
| 20/12/23 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Monaco |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 6 | PSG | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| 7 | Angers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| 16 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Strasbourg | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Le Havre | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Lille | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monaco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 04/09 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
3-1 | 4-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Metz France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 5 | D |
Toulouse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/09 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 17/04 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monaco vs Toulouse?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monaco win (57%). Probabilities: Monaco 57%, draw 24%, Toulouse 19%.
How many goals are expected in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Monaco 1.91 · Toulouse 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.