Football · France Ligue 1 · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Lens vs Lyon

Team pages: Lens · Lyon

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.28Total
Lens1.76
Lyon1.52
1X2
42% 26% 32%
Lens Draw Lyon
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Lens 3-3-4 (W-D-L)
DDWLWWLLDL
Lyon 6-2-2 (W-D-L)
WWWLLWDWDW
Head-to-head
Lens 3–2–1 Lyon (6 last)
  • Lyon0-4Lens
  • Lyon2-2Lens
  • Lens0-1Lyon
  • Lyon1-2Lens
  • Lens0-0Lyon
  • Lyon0-3Lens
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lens 1527 · Lyon 1546
LensDrawLyon
Our model43%25%32%
Market42%26%32%
Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Lens: 3-2-1.
  • High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

LensLyon
Goals for / against (FT)1.8 / 1.52 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.70.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/30/40%40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)3.6 / 7.13.8 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.5 / 0.34.2 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lens 3–2–1 Lyon

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DateHomeScoreAway
17/05/26
France Ligue 1
Lyon0-4
HT 0-3
Lens
05/03/26
France Cup
Lyon2-2
HT 0-2
Lens
16/08/25
France Ligue 1
Lens0-1
HT 0-1
Lyon
04/05/25
France Ligue 1
Lyon1-2
HT 0-1
Lens
15/09/24
France Ligue 1
Lens0-0
HT 0-0
Lyon
03/03/24
France Ligue 1
Lyon0-3
HT 0-1
Lens

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Monaco 5410 8313
2 Lyon 5320 10211
3 Paris FC 5320 8311
4 Lille 5311 8410
5 Rennes 5311 8910
6 PSG 5221 878
7 Angers 5212 657
8 Strasbourg 5212 10107
9 Le Mans 5131 996
10 Auxerre 5203 7126
11 Brest 5122 785
12 Lorient 5122 565
13 Toulouse 5122 795
14 Nice 5122 365
15 Lens 5113 994
16 Troyes 5113 4114
17 Marseille 5104 783
18 Le Havre 5023 472

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLensLyon
Auxerre 5-2 W 3-1 W
PSG 0-2 L 2-1 W
Record vs common 1 W 0 D 1 L 2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lens

DDWLWWLLDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/09 Monaco
France Ligue 1
0-1 1-2 82 L
13/09 Le Mans
France Ligue 1
1-2 2-2 95 D
05/09 Lorient
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-1 85 L
29/08 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
1-0 1-2 64 L
22/08 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
1-0 5-2 43 W
17/05 Lyon
France Ligue 1
3-0 4-0 85 W
13/05 PSG
France Ligue 1
0-1 0-2 61 L
08/05 Nantes
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-0 83 W
02/05 Nice
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-1 86 D
24/04 Brest
France Ligue 1
0-3 3-3 64 D

Lyon

WWWLLWDWDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/09 Rennes
France Ligue 1
2-0 4-0 36 W
12/09 Paris FC
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 33 D
04/09 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
2-1 3-1 94 W
29/08 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-1 52 D
22/08 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
0-0 2-0 53 W
17/05 Lens
France Ligue 1
0-3 0-4 205 L
10/05 Toulouse
France Ligue 1
0-1 1-2 88 L
03/05 Rennes
France Ligue 1
2-1 4-2 73 W
25/04 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
1-1 3-2 63 W
19/04 PSG
France Ligue 1
2-0 2-1 56 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lens vs Lyon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lens win (42%). Probabilities: Lens 42%, draw 26%, Lyon 32%.

How many goals are expected in Lens vs Lyon?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Lens 1.76 · Lyon 1.52), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Lyon?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.