Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 27/09, 22:30

Prediction: Deportivo Santo Domingo vs Gualaceo SC

Team pages: Deportivo Santo Domingo · Gualaceo SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.72Total

Deportivo Santo Domingo0.99

Gualaceo SC0.73

1X2

41% 33% 26%

Deportivo Santo Domingo Draw Gualaceo SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Santo Domingo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDWWLW

Gualaceo SC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDWWWD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Santo Domingo 2–4 Gualaceo SC (6 last)

Gualaceo SC1-0CD Vargas Torres
CD Vargas Torres2-0Gualaceo SC
CD Vargas Torres3-0Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC2-1CD Vargas Torres
Gualaceo SC1-0CD Vargas Torres
CD Vargas Torres0-1Gualaceo SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Santo Domingo 1521 · Gualaceo SC 1495

	Deportivo Santo Domingo	Draw	Gualaceo SC
Our model	39%	36%	25%
Market	42%	31%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.72 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gualaceo SC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Santo Domingo	Gualaceo SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/56/33%	25/75/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.6	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.88

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.90

Under 1.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.32 ★
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.54

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:05 +80’	2.20	2.88	3.20
12:27 +4’	2.15▼	2.88	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:41 +38’	2.33	2.70	3.43
16:31 +44’	2.30▼	2.71▲	3.48▲
20:31 +34’	2.32▲	2.74▲	3.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Santo Domingo 2–0–4 Gualaceo SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Gualaceo SC	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Vargas Torres
28/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	CD Vargas Torres	2-0 HT 2-0	Gualaceo SC
18/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	CD Vargas Torres	3-0 HT 2-0	Gualaceo SC
08/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Gualaceo SC	2-1 HT 0-1	CD Vargas Torres
08/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Gualaceo SC	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Vargas Torres
17/07/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	CD Vargas Torres	0-1	Gualaceo SC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	LDU Portoviejo	27	9	9	9	22	24	36
2	CD Vargas Torres	26	9	10	7	23	18	34
3	Gualaceo SC	26	10	9	7	26	16	33
4	Cumbaya	27	7	12	8	33	26	33
5	El Nacional	27	3	6	18	18	41	12
6	22 de Julio	27	4	4	19	13	49	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Santo Domingo	Gualaceo SC
El Nacional	1-0 W	3-0 W
LDU Portoviejo	0-1 L	0-0 D
Cumbaya	2-1 W	1-0 W
22 de Julio	3-0 W	0-1 L
Atletico FC Guayaquil	1-0 W	0-0 D
Club 9 de Octubre	0-0 D	0-0 D
CD Cuenca Jrs	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gualaceo SC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Santo Domingo

LLDWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/09	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
04/09	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
27/08	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
22/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-0	–	–	D
13/08	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-2	3-3	2	4	D
06/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
25/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
17/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	11	4	L

Gualaceo SC

DLDLLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
10/09	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
29/08	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	5	7	W
20/08	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
15/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
06/08	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
24/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/07	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Santo Domingo vs Gualaceo SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Santo Domingo win (41%). Probabilities: Deportivo Santo Domingo 41%, draw 33%, Gualaceo SC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Santo Domingo vs Gualaceo SC?

The model expects 1.72 goals (Deportivo Santo Domingo 0.99 · Gualaceo SC 0.73), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Santo Domingo vs Gualaceo SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.