Football · Peru Liga 2 · 13/10, 03:00

Prediction: Carlos Manucci vs Alianza Universidad

Team pages: Carlos Manucci · Alianza Universidad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Carlos Manucci1.74

Alianza Universidad0.95

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Carlos Manucci Draw Alianza Universidad

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Carlos Manucci 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWWWD

Alianza Universidad 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLDDDL

Head-to-head

Carlos Manucci 2–3–1 Alianza Universidad (6 last)

Carlos Manucci1-1Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad0-1Carlos Manucci
Carlos Manucci0-0Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad3-0Carlos Manucci
Carlos Manucci2-2Alianza Universidad
Carlos Manucci2-0Alianza Universidad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carlos Manucci 1548 · Alianza Universidad 1482

	Carlos Manucci	Draw	Alianza Universidad
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Manucci (rating 1548 vs 1482).
H2H favours Carlos Manucci: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carlos Manucci	Alianza Universidad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	1.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:39 +32’	1.61	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlos Manucci 2–3–1 Alianza Universidad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/09/21 Peru Liga 1	Carlos Manucci	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Universidad
19/08/20 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Universidad	0-1 HT 0-0	Carlos Manucci
29/09/19 Peru Liga 1	Carlos Manucci	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Universidad
14/04/19 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Universidad	3-0 HT 1-0	Carlos Manucci
15/12/18 Peru Play-Offs	Carlos Manucci	2-2 HT 2-1	Alianza Universidad
20/11/16 Peru Liga 2	Carlos Manucci	2-0 HT 1-0	Alianza Universidad

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carlos Manucci	2	1	1	0	7	0	6
2	Bentin Tacna Heroica	2	0	2	0	2	2	3
3	CD Universidad San Martin	2	1	0	1	2	8	3
4	Alianza Universidad	2	0	1	1	3	4	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carlos Manucci	Alianza Universidad
Bentin Tacna Heroica	0-0 D	2-2 D
CD Universidad San Martin	7-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Carlos Manucci (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carlos Manucci

WWLWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
26/09	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	3-0	7-0	5	2	W
07/09	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	4-2	5	3	W
29/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
23/08	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
16/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
02/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
19/07	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
24/05	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Alianza Universidad

WLDDWLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-2	1-2	6	8	L
27/09	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	2-2	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
06/09	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
29/08	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
24/08	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/08	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
31/07	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/07	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	3-2	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carlos Manucci vs Alianza Universidad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carlos Manucci win (55%). Probabilities: Carlos Manucci 55%, draw 25%, Alianza Universidad 20%.

How many goals are expected in Carlos Manucci vs Alianza Universidad?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Carlos Manucci 1.74 · Alianza Universidad 0.95), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Carlos Manucci vs Alianza Universidad?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.