Football · Peru Liga 2 · 26/09, 03:00

Prediction: Carlos Manucci vs CD Universidad San Martin

Team pages: Carlos Manucci · CD Universidad San Martin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Carlos Manucci1.58

CD Universidad San Martin1.04

1X2

49% 28% 24%

Carlos Manucci Draw CD Universidad San Martin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Carlos Manucci 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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CD Universidad San Martin 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Carlos Manucci 5–1 CD Universidad San Martin (6 last)

CD Universidad San Martin2-0Carlos Manucci
Carlos Manucci2-1CD Universidad San Martin
Carlos Manucci3-2CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin1-3Carlos Manucci
CD Universidad San Martin0-2Carlos Manucci
Carlos Manucci2-0CD Universidad San Martin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carlos Manucci 1570 · CD Universidad San Martin 1498

	Carlos Manucci	Draw	CD Universidad San Martin
Our model	49%	28%	24%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Manucci (rating 1570 vs 1498).
H2H favours Carlos Manucci: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carlos Manucci	CD Universidad San Martin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.25

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +2’	1.83	3.25	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlos Manucci 5–0–1 CD Universidad San Martin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Peru Liga 2	CD Universidad San Martin	2-0 HT 1-0	Carlos Manucci
05/04/26 Peru Liga 2	Carlos Manucci	2-1 HT 2-0	CD Universidad San Martin
13/08/22 Peru Liga 1	Carlos Manucci	3-2 HT 1-2	CD Universidad San Martin
22/03/22 Peru Liga 1	CD Universidad San Martin	1-3 HT 0-2	Carlos Manucci
17/07/21 Peru Liga 1	CD Universidad San Martin	0-2 HT 0-1	Carlos Manucci
28/03/21 Peru Liga 1	Carlos Manucci	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Universidad San Martin

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bentin Tacna Heroica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carlos Manucci	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Universidad San Martin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alianza Universidad	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carlos Manucci	CD Universidad San Martin
Pirata FC	4-2 W	2-3 L
Academia Deportiva Cantolao	2-0 W	2-2 D
Union Comercio	0-0 D	0-1 L
Cesar Vallejo	0-1 L	2-0 W
Club Ada Jaen	2-0 W	3-1 W
Deportivo Llacuabamba	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Carlos Manucci (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carlos Manucci

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	4-2	5	3	W
29/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
23/08	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
16/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
02/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
19/07	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
24/05	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	0-0	4-1	9	5	W
09/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

CD Universidad San Martin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
29/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
01/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
25/07	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
20/07	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	2-3	8	8	L
31/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	4-0	6	9	W
23/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
17/05	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carlos Manucci vs CD Universidad San Martin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carlos Manucci win (49%). Probabilities: Carlos Manucci 49%, draw 28%, CD Universidad San Martin 24%.

How many goals are expected in Carlos Manucci vs CD Universidad San Martin?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Carlos Manucci 1.58 · CD Universidad San Martin 1.04), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carlos Manucci vs CD Universidad San Martin?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.