Football · Panama Liga Prom · 18/09, 01:00

Prediction: Alianza FC Reserves vs Academia Costa Del Este

Team pages: Alianza FC Reserves · Academia Costa Del Este

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Alianza FC Reserves1.04

Academia Costa Del Este1.77

1X2

21% 25% 54%

Alianza FC Reserves Draw Academia Costa Del Este

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC Reserves 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWDLLW

Academia Costa Del Este 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWLWWL

Head-to-head

Alianza FC Reserves 0–2–1 Academia Costa Del Este (3 last)

Alianza FC Reserves0-0Academia Costa Del Este
Alianza FC Reserves3-4Academia Costa Del Este
Academia Costa Del Este1-1Alianza FC Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC Reserves 1490 · Academia Costa Del Este 1543

	Alianza FC Reserves	Draw	Academia Costa Del Este
Our model	21%	26%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Academia Costa Del Este (rating 1490 vs 1543).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC Reserves	Academia Costa Del Este
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 4.9	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.75

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:17 +2’	4.10	3.75	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Reserves 0–2–1 Academia Costa Del Este

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	Academia Costa Del Este
22/08/25 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	3-4 HT 1-2	Academia Costa Del Este
22/02/25 Panama Liga Prom	Academia Costa Del Este	1-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC Reserves

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chorrillo	8	4	3	1	13	6	15
1	Tauro FC Reserves	8	4	3	1	13	6	15
3	Plaza Amador Reserves	8	4	0	4	19	16	12
4	Potros Del Este	9	3	1	5	8	10	10
5	Alianza FC Reserves	8	2	2	4	7	13	8
6	San Martin FC	8	1	1	6	12	17	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC Reserves	Academia Costa Del Este
Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	1-0 W	1-3 L
CD Arabe Unido Reserves	1-2 L	2-1 W
Panama City FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Chorrillo	0-0 D	2-3 L
Plaza Amador Reserves	1-4 L	3-0 W
San Martin FC	1-4 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Academia Costa Del Este (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC Reserves

DWLLDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
06/09	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-2	4	8	L
29/08	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
06/08	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
31/07	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/04	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
24/04	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	11	5	D

Academia Costa Del Este

DDWWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	2-1	2-3	5	10	L
06/09	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
21/08	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
16/08	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
09/08	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
30/07	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
24/07	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
09/05	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-1	11	9	D
05/05	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Reserves vs Academia Costa Del Este?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Academia Costa Del Este win (54%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Reserves 21%, draw 25%, Academia Costa Del Este 54%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Reserves vs Academia Costa Del Este?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Alianza FC Reserves 1.04 · Academia Costa Del Este 1.77), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC Reserves vs Academia Costa Del Este?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.