Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 08/11, 22:30

Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Quito

Team pages: Barcelona Guayaquil · LDU Quito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Barcelona Guayaquil1.27

LDU Quito1.21

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Barcelona Guayaquil Draw LDU Quito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona Guayaquil 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDDLDWL

LDU Quito 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWDLL

Head-to-head

Barcelona Guayaquil 1–1–4 LDU Quito (6 last)

LDU Quito2-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil0-1LDU Quito
LDU Quito0-2Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil2-2LDU Quito
LDU Quito3-0Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil0-1LDU Quito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil 1510 · LDU Quito 1506

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Draw	LDU Quito
Our model	37%	30%	34%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LDU Quito: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona Guayaquil	LDU Quito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.6	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.7	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.50▼	Bet365 2.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.29
2	2.55 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.87 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +6’	2.63	3.20	2.55
07:12 +11’	2.50▼	3.20	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +6’	2.41	3.29	2.93
18:20 +22’	2.45▲	3.29	2.87▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 1–1–4 LDU Quito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-1 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil
27/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	0-1 HT 0-0	LDU Quito
04/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	0-2 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil
23/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-2 HT 1-1	LDU Quito
18/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	3-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
25/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	0-1 HT 0-1	LDU Quito

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	34	26	3	5	77	35	81
2	Macara	35	20	6	9	50	35	66
3	SD Aucas	35	15	9	11	38	38	54
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	35	14	11	10	54	33	53
5	LDU Quito	35	15	8	12	37	31	53
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	34	12	12	10	38	31	48

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona Guayaquil	LDU Quito
Macara	0-3 L	1-2 L
SD Aucas	4-0 W	1-1 D
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 D	2-1 W
Independiente del Valle	2-1 W	0-2 L
Mushuc Runa	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona Guayaquil

DWLWDDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
25/10	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	4-0	4	7	W
18/10	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	14	6	D
11/10	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	6	8	L
14/09	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
07/09	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
03/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
30/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
23/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
16/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

LDU Quito

WLDWDWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
24/10	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	7	0	L
17/10	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
11/10	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
21/09	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
13/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
05/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
24/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Quito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona Guayaquil win (37%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil 37%, draw 29%, LDU Quito 34%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Quito?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil 1.27 · LDU Quito 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Quito?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.