Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 08/11, 19:45
Prediction: SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
Team pages: SD Aucas · Independiente del Valle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
SD Aucas1.15
Independiente del Valle1.45
1X2
SD Aucas
Draw
Independiente del Valle
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
SD Aucas
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Independiente del Valle
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SD Aucas
0–1–5
Independiente del Valle
(6 last)
- Independiente del Valle2-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas0-3Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle2-2SD Aucas
- Independiente del Valle2-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas1-2Independiente del Valle
- SD Aucas0-2Independiente del Valle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1477 · Independiente del Valle 1577
| SD Aucas | Draw | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 29% | 43% |
| Market | 29% | 29% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1477 vs 1577).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SD Aucas | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.6 | 3.5 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.5 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 0–1–5 Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 HT 0-1 | SD Aucas |
| 16/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Independiente del Valle |
| 14/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-2 HT 2-1 | SD Aucas |
| 19/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 HT 2-0 | SD Aucas |
| 28/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Independiente del Valle |
| 01/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 34 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 77 | 35 | 81 |
| 2 | Macara | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 35 | 66 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 38 | 54 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 54 | 33 | 53 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 31 | 53 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 31 | 48 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SD Aucas | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| LDU Quito | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Macara | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Delfin SC | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/10 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 10/10 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 07/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 23/10 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (43%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 29%, draw 29%, Independiente del Valle 43%.
How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 2.6 goals (SD Aucas 1.15 · Independiente del Valle 1.45), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.