Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 08/11, 17:15
Prediction: Macara vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Team pages: Macara · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
Macara1.42
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.14
1X2
Macara
Draw
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Macara
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Macara
1–1–4
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
(6 last)
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-1Macara
- Macara1-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador4-0Macara
- Macara1-4Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-0Macara
- Macara1-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Macara 1576 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1532
| Macara | Draw | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1576 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Macara | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.3 | 1.6 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Macara 1–1–4 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Macara |
| 18/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 24/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 27/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 06/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Macara |
| 30/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 34 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 77 | 35 | 81 |
| 2 | Macara | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 50 | 35 | 66 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 38 | 54 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 54 | 33 | 53 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 31 | 53 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 31 | 48 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Macara | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| LDU Quito | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Independiente del Valle | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| SD Aucas | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Manta FC | 4-3 W | 5-1 W |
| Orense | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Macara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Macara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 17/10 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/10 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Macara vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Macara win (42%). Probabilities: Macara 42%, draw 28%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 29%.
How many goals are expected in Macara vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
The model expects 2.56 goals (Macara 1.42 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Macara vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.