Football · England Northern League Division One · 16/09, 20:45
Prediction: Lichfield City vs Newcastle Town
Team pages: Lichfield City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Lichfield City1.16
Newcastle Town2.01
1X2
Lichfield City
Draw
Newcastle Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Lichfield City
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Newcastle Town
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lichfield City 1416 · Newcastle Town 1511
| Lichfield City | Draw | Newcastle Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 21% | 22% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newcastle Town (rating 1416 vs 1511).
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lichfield City | Newcastle Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.6 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.4 | 1.5 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lichfield City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Hanley Town England Northern League Division One |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/08 | Stafford Rangers England Northern League Division One |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 12/08 | Shifnal Town England Northern League Division One |
1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Shepshed Dynamo England Northern League Division One |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 24/02 | Coventry Sphinx England Northern League Division One |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/02 | Mickleover Sports England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/01 | Sutton Coldfield England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/10 | Corby England Northern League Division One |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 15/10 | Racing Club Warwick England Northern League Division One |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 07/10 | Boldmere St Michaels England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Newcastle Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Chasetown England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 11/08 | 1874 Northwich England Northern League Division One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 28/03 | Shifnal Town England Northern League Division One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/03 | Congleton Town England Northern League Division One |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Mossley England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/03 | Darlaston Town 1874 England Northern League Division One |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/02 | Sporting Khalsa England Northern League Division One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/01 | Congleton Town England Northern League Division One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 01/01 | Vauxhall Motors England Northern League Division One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/12 | Bury England Northern League Division One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lichfield City vs Newcastle Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Newcastle Town win (56%). Probabilities: Lichfield City 21%, draw 23%, Newcastle Town 56%.
How many goals are expected in Lichfield City vs Newcastle Town?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Lichfield City 1.16 · Newcastle Town 2.01), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Lichfield City vs Newcastle Town?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.