Football · England Northern League Division One · 22/09, 20:45

Prediction: Long Eaton Utd vs Loughborough University

Team pages: Long Eaton Utd · Loughborough University

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Long Eaton Utd1.73

Loughborough University1.66

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Long Eaton Utd Draw Loughborough University

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Long Eaton Utd 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLLLD

Loughborough University 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWDLLD

Head-to-head

Long Eaton Utd 1–2 Loughborough University (3 last)

Loughborough University5-3Long Eaton Utd
Loughborough University0-4Long Eaton Utd
Long Eaton Utd1-2Loughborough University

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Long Eaton Utd 1420 · Loughborough University 1537

	Long Eaton Utd	Draw	Loughborough University
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loughborough University (rating 1420 vs 1537).
H2H favours Loughborough University: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Long Eaton Utd	Loughborough University
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/22/67%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:57 +7’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Long Eaton Utd 1–0–2 Loughborough University

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/10/25 England Northern League Division One	Loughborough University	5-3 HT 3-3	Long Eaton Utd
08/02/25 England Northern League Division One	Loughborough University	0-4 HT 0-2	Long Eaton Utd
10/12/24 England Northern League Division One	Long Eaton Utd	1-2 HT 0-2	Loughborough University

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Long Eaton Utd	Loughborough University
Belper Town	1-1 D	0-0 D
Rugby Borough	0-2 L	1-0 W
Shepshed Dynamo	2-3 L	2-0 W
Anstey Nomads	0-1 L	1-1 D
AFC Rushden & Diamonds	3-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Loughborough University (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Long Eaton Utd

LWLLDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Belper Town England Northern League Division One	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
15/09	Carlton Town England Northern League Division One	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
09/09	Rugby Borough England Northern League Division One	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
18/08	Coventry United England Northern League Division One	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Shepshed Dynamo England Northern League Division One	0-3	2-3	7	3	L
28/03	Shepshed Dynamo England Northern League Division One	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
17/02	Rugby Borough England Northern League Division One	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
03/02	Anstey Nomads England Northern League Division One	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
24/01	AFC Rushden & Diamonds England Northern League Division One	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
20/01	Carlton Town England Northern League Division One	0-1	1-4	2	5	L

Loughborough University

DWDWWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Corby England Northern League Division One	1-1	3-3	10	6	D
25/08	Grantham England Northern League Division One	0-3	2-4	9	6	L
18/08	Sutton Coldfield England Northern League Division One	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/08	Belper Town England Northern League Division One	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
06/04	Shepshed Dynamo England Northern League Division One	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
04/04	Rugby Borough England Northern League Division One	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
21/03	AFC Rushden & Diamonds England Northern League Division One	1-0	3-0	13	6	W
21/02	Anstey Nomads England Northern League Division One	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
03/02	Coleshill Town England Northern League Division One	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
10/01	Coleshill Town England Northern League Division One	1-1	1-1	2	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Long Eaton Utd vs Loughborough University?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Long Eaton Utd win (39%). Probabilities: Long Eaton Utd 39%, draw 25%, Loughborough University 36%.

How many goals are expected in Long Eaton Utd vs Loughborough University?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Long Eaton Utd 1.73 · Loughborough University 1.66), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Long Eaton Utd vs Loughborough University?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.