Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 07/11, 22:30

Prediction: Leones FC vs Guayaquil City

Team pages: Leones FC · Guayaquil City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Leones FC1.72

Guayaquil City0.94

1X2

54% 27% 19%

Leones FC Draw Guayaquil City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Leones FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLDLLWW

Guayaquil City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDWLWD

Head-to-head

Leones FC 1–4–1 Guayaquil City (6 last)

Guayaquil City1-1Leones FC
Leones FC1-1Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City0-0Leones FC
Leones FC0-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City2-1Leones FC
Leones FC2-1Guayaquil City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones FC 1495 · Guayaquil City 1521

	Leones FC	Draw	Guayaquil City
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	54%	27%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones FC	Guayaquil City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.77
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.51 ★
2	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:02 +12’	1.83	3.30	4.33
07:22 +1’	1.73▼	3.40▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +14’	1.82	3.47	4.19
02:13 +1’	1.84▲	3.51▲	4.25▲
10:06 +8’	1.73▼	3.64▲	4.69▲
13:22 +4’	1.74▲	3.61▼	4.68▼
15:05 +18’	1.76▲	3.56▼	4.66▼
16:05 +17’	1.77▲	3.51▼	4.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones FC 1–4–1 Guayaquil City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	1-1 HT 0-1	Leones FC
23/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Guayaquil City
23/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Leones FC
29/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Leones FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
27/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Guayaquil City	2-1 HT 1-1	Leones FC
23/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Leones FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Guayaquil City

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	35	14	9	12	43	39	51
2	Guayaquil City	35	12	11	12	38	43	47
3	Leones FC	35	12	10	13	39	40	46
4	Emelec	35	11	9	15	31	43	42

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones FC	Guayaquil City
Emelec	2-0 W	1-0 W
Club Atletico Libertad	4-1 W	0-0 D
Tecnico Universitario	0-1 L	3-2 W
Mushuc Runa	1-1 D	3-1 W
Orense	1-0 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leones FC

LLWDLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
25/10	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	4-1	5	3	W
18/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
09/10	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
19/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
13/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
08/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
03/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L

Guayaquil City

WWLLWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
25/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
17/10	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
10/10	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	3-2	5	4	W
19/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
12/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
08/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	3-4	1	4	L
02/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones FC vs Guayaquil City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leones FC win (54%). Probabilities: Leones FC 54%, draw 27%, Guayaquil City 19%.

How many goals are expected in Leones FC vs Guayaquil City?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Leones FC 1.72 · Guayaquil City 0.94), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones FC vs Guayaquil City?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.