Prediction: Emelec vs Club Atletico Libertad
Team pages: Emelec · Club Atletico Libertad
- Club Atletico Libertad1-1Emelec
- Emelec1-1Club Atletico Libertad
- Club Atletico Libertad1-2Emelec
- Emelec1-1Club Atletico Libertad
- Club Atletico Libertad2-1Emelec
- Emelec0-0Club Atletico Libertad
| Emelec | Draw | Club Atletico Libertad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Libertad (rating 1486 vs 1544).
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Emelec | Club Atletico Libertad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.8 | 1.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 1–4–1 Club Atletico Libertad
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Club Atletico Libertad | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Emelec |
| 10/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Club Atletico Libertad |
| 04/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Club Atletico Libertad | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Emelec |
| 12/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Libertad |
| 30/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Club Atletico Libertad | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Emelec |
| 02/06/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Libertad |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 34 | 41 |
| 2 | Leones FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 32 | 39 |
| 3 | Guayaquil City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 36 | 39 |
| 4 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 34 | 39 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Emelec | Club Atletico Libertad |
|---|---|---|
| Macara | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Guayaquil City | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| SD Aucas | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Mushuc Runa | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Libertad (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emelec
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 04/09 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 02/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
Club Atletico Libertad
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/09 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 27/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emelec vs Club Atletico Libertad?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (56%). Probabilities: Emelec 56%, draw 27%, Club Atletico Libertad 17%.
How many goals are expected in Emelec vs Club Atletico Libertad?
The model expects 2.15 goals (Emelec 1.46 · Club Atletico Libertad 0.68), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Emelec vs Club Atletico Libertad?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.