Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 21/09, 01:30
Prediction: LDU Quito vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Team pages: LDU Quito · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
LDU Quito1.49
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.18
1X2
LDU Quito
Draw
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
LDU Quito
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
LDU Quito
1–2–3
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
(6 last)
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-0LDU Quito
- LDU Quito1-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- LDU Quito2-0Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-2LDU Quito
- Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-2LDU Quito
- LDU Quito2-4Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · LDU Quito 1529 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1590
| LDU Quito | Draw | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1529 vs 1590).
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| LDU Quito | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.2 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito 1–2–3 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-0 HT 0-0 | LDU Quito |
| 15/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 21/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 19/12/25 Ecuador Cup | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 3-2 HT 1-1 | LDU Quito |
| 05/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 2-2 HT 0-0 | LDU Quito |
| 21/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | 74 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 27 | 51 |
| 4 | SD Aucas | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 30 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 44 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | LDU Quito | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Guayaquil City | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| SD Aucas | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Independiente del Valle | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Delfin SC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Manta FC | 1-1 D | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
LDU Quito
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/09 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 29/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 27/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 22/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in LDU Quito vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito win (43%). Probabilities: LDU Quito 43%, draw 28%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 29%.
How many goals are expected in LDU Quito vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
The model expects 2.67 goals (LDU Quito 1.49 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.18), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in LDU Quito vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.