Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 19/09, 02:30
Prediction: SD Aucas vs Macara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
SD Aucas1.42
Macara0.91
1X2
SD Aucas
Draw
Macara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
SD Aucas
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Macara
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SD Aucas
1–1–4
Macara
(6 last)
- SD Aucas1-4Macara
- Macara0-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas0-2Macara
- Macara3-2SD Aucas
- SD Aucas1-4Macara
- Macara1-1SD Aucas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1502 · Macara 1553
| SD Aucas | Draw | Macara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 30% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 29% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1502 vs 1553).
- H2H favours Macara: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SD Aucas | Macara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.3 | 2.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 1–1–4 Macara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Macara |
| 06/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-1 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
| 20/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 05/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 3-2 HT 0-2 | SD Aucas |
| 06/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Macara |
| 09/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-1 HT 0-1 | SD Aucas |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 33 | 51 |
| 4 | SD Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 44 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SD Aucas | Macara |
|---|---|---|
| Manta FC | 0-0 D | 4-3 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Emelec | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Orense | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Macara (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 07/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 03/09 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 17/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 23/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 26/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs Macara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Aucas win (48%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 48%, draw 29%, Macara 23%.
How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs Macara?
The model expects 2.33 goals (SD Aucas 1.42 · Macara 0.91), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs Macara?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.