Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 19/09, 23:30

Prediction: Guayaquil City vs Leones FC

Team pages: Guayaquil City · Leones FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Guayaquil City1.23

Leones FC1.06

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Guayaquil City Draw Leones FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Guayaquil City 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDWWLLW

Leones FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLLWDL

Head-to-head

Guayaquil City 1–3–2 Leones FC (6 last)

Leones FC1-1Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City0-0Leones FC
Leones FC0-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City2-1Leones FC
Leones FC2-1Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City0-1Leones FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guayaquil City 1504 · Leones FC 1471

	Guayaquil City	Draw	Leones FC
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Leones FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guayaquil City	Leones FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 22:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.46 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.11
2	3.20 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.11

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +4’	2.25	3.10	3.20
16:06 +57’	2.15▼	3.10	3.50▲
00:53 +8’	2.05▼	3.20▲	3.60▲
09:33 +22’	2.25▲	3.10▼	3.10▼
14:41 +4’	2.25	3.10	3.20▲
22:33 +5’	2.35▲	3.10	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +19’	2.47	2.98	2.99
17:16 +97’	2.49▲	3.01▲	3.02▲
19:47 +135’	2.48▼	3.01	3.04▲
07:06 +28’	2.35▼	3.01	3.25▲
23:30 +819’	2.16▼	3.09▲	3.58▲
15:25 +188’	2.14▼	3.13▲	3.57▼
00:30 +32’	2.16▲	3.17▲	3.60▲
08:59 +56’	2.26▲	3.14▼	3.39▼
11:32 +193’	2.27▲	3.15▲	3.41▲
17:18 +118’	2.28▲	3.15	3.40▼
22:06 +32’	2.46▲	3.11▼	3.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guayaquil City 1–3–2 Leones FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Guayaquil City
23/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Leones FC
29/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Leones FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
27/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Guayaquil City	2-1 HT 1-1	Leones FC
23/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Leones FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Guayaquil City
15/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Guayaquil City	0-1 HT 0-0	Leones FC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	30	11	8	11	33	34	41
2	Leones FC	30	10	9	11	31	32	39
3	Guayaquil City	30	10	9	11	33	36	39
4	Emelec	30	10	9	11	25	34	39

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guayaquil City	Leones FC
Mushuc Runa	3-1 W	1-1 D
Orense	3-4 L	1-0 W
Tecnico Universitario	3-2 W	0-1 L
Emelec	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guayaquil City (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guayaquil City

DDLDDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
08/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	3-4	1	4	L
02/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-2	1	3	D
10/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
02/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	0	9	L
27/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	5	D

Leones FC

DWDLWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
08/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
03/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guayaquil City vs Leones FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guayaquil City win (39%). Probabilities: Guayaquil City 39%, draw 30%, Leones FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Guayaquil City vs Leones FC?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Guayaquil City 1.23 · Leones FC 1.06), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs Leones FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.