Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/10, 20:00

Prediction: Club Atletico Libertad vs Leones FC

Team pages: Club Atletico Libertad · Leones FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Club Atletico Libertad1.33

Leones FC1.21

1X2

38% 30% 32%

Club Atletico Libertad Draw Leones FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico Libertad 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLDWLW

Leones FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLWDLD

Head-to-head

Club Atletico Libertad 0–1–1 Leones FC (2 last)

Club Atletico Libertad1-3Leones FC
Leones FC1-1Club Atletico Libertad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico Libertad 1537 · Leones FC 1485

	Club Atletico Libertad	Draw	Leones FC
Our model	38%	29%	32%
Market	38%	30%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Libertad (rating 1537 vs 1485).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico Libertad	Leones FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.08

2 (+0.25)1.73

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.51
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.00 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +4’	2.45	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:13 +52’	2.51	3.01	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Libertad 0–1–1 Leones FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	1-3 HT 1-2	Leones FC
28/02/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	31	12	8	11	35	35	44
2	Leones FC	31	10	10	11	32	33	40
3	Guayaquil City	31	10	10	11	34	37	40
4	Emelec	31	10	9	12	26	36	39

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico Libertad	Leones FC
Emelec	2-1 W	1-2 L
Independiente del Valle	2-3 L	2-3 L
SD Aucas	0-1 L	0-3 L
Guayaquil City	2-2 D	1-1 D
Orense	3-0 W	1-0 W
Mushuc Runa	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Libertad (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Atletico Libertad

WWWDWLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
14/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
07/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
30/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
10/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
01/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
27/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Leones FC

WDLWLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
13/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
08/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
03/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Libertad vs Leones FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico Libertad win (38%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Libertad 38%, draw 30%, Leones FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Libertad vs Leones FC?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Club Atletico Libertad 1.33 · Leones FC 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico Libertad vs Leones FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.