Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 07/11, 20:00

Prediction: Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec

Team pages: Club Atletico Libertad · Emelec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Club Atletico Libertad1.32

Emelec1.18

1X2

38% 30% 32%

Club Atletico Libertad Draw Emelec

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico Libertad 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWWWLD

Emelec 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Club Atletico Libertad 2–3–1 Emelec (6 last)

Emelec1-2Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad1-1Emelec
Emelec1-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad1-2Emelec
Emelec1-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad2-1Emelec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico Libertad 1524 · Emelec 1456

	Club Atletico Libertad	Draw	Emelec
Our model	38%	29%	32%
Market	38%	30%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Libertad (rating 1524 vs 1456).
H2H favours Club Atletico Libertad: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico Libertad	Emelec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.2	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.20 ★
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.04

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +5’	2.40	3.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +5’	2.38	3.17	2.98
01:45 +29’	2.41▲	3.20▲	3.01▲
15:31 +1’	2.47▲	3.20	2.92▼
16:05 +16’	2.39▼	3.20	3.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Libertad 2–3–1 Emelec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-2 HT 1-0	Club Atletico Libertad
04/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	1-1 HT 1-0	Emelec
10/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-1 HT 1-1	Club Atletico Libertad
04/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	1-2 HT 0-1	Emelec
12/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-1 HT 1-0	Club Atletico Libertad
30/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	2-1 HT 2-0	Emelec

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · Serie A 2026, Qualifying Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Atletico Libertad	35	14	9	12	43	39	51
2	Guayaquil City	35	12	11	12	38	43	47
3	Leones FC	35	12	10	13	39	40	46
4	Emelec	35	11	9	15	31	43	42

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico Libertad	Emelec
Guayaquil City	0-0 D	0-1 L
Leones FC	1-4 L	0-2 L
Macara	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Libertad (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Atletico Libertad

WLDWLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
25/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-4	4	3	L
17/10	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
09/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
20/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
14/09	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
07/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
30/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

Emelec

LWDWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
25/10	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
18/10	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	3-1	8	3	W
10/10	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-3	3	4	L
20/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
13/09	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
08/09	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
04/09	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
24/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico Libertad win (38%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Libertad 38%, draw 30%, Emelec 32%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Club Atletico Libertad 1.32 · Emelec 1.18), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico Libertad vs Emelec?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.