Football · Chile Primera B · 03/10, 20:00

Prediction: Deportes Recoleta vs Santiago Wanderers

Team pages: Deportes Recoleta · Santiago Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Deportes Recoleta1.17

Santiago Wanderers1.11

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Deportes Recoleta Draw Santiago Wanderers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Recoleta 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWDWWD

Santiago Wanderers 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWWWLL

Head-to-head

Deportes Recoleta 3–3–0 Santiago Wanderers (6 last)

Santiago Wanderers0-2Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Recoleta1-1Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers1-1Deportes Recoleta
Santiago Wanderers1-1Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Recoleta3-1Santiago Wanderers
Deportes Recoleta4-1Santiago Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Recoleta 1524 · Santiago Wanderers 1502

	Deportes Recoleta	Draw	Santiago Wanderers
Our model	36%	31%	33%
Market	38%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportes Recoleta: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Recoleta	Santiago Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.8	2.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:07 +11’	2.40	3.25	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Recoleta 3–3–0 Santiago Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Chile Primera B	Santiago Wanderers	0-2 HT 0-1	Deportes Recoleta
23/08/25 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	1-1 HT 0-0	Santiago Wanderers
18/04/25 Chile Primera B	Santiago Wanderers	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportes Recoleta
16/07/24 Chile Primera B	Santiago Wanderers	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportes Recoleta
25/02/24 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	3-1 HT 1-1	Santiago Wanderers
22/07/23 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	4-1 HT 3-0	Santiago Wanderers

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	25	12	9	4	43	27	45
2	Santiago Wanderers	25	12	8	5	40	26	44
3	San Luis Quillota	25	12	8	5	39	29	44
4	Magallanes	25	11	7	7	41	38	40
5	CD Antofagasta	25	10	8	7	42	26	38
6	Deportes Recoleta	25	10	8	7	36	33	38
7	San Marcos De Arica	25	9	9	7	31	23	36
8	Union Espanola	25	10	6	9	32	32	36
9	Deportes Copiapo	25	9	7	9	37	39	34
10	Puerto Montt	25	10	4	11	26	31	34
11	Deportes Temuco	25	8	8	9	40	35	32
12	Deportes Iquique	25	6	10	9	33	30	28
13	Curico Unido	25	6	9	10	22	38	24
14	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	25	4	10	11	26	38	22
15	Union San Felipe	25	5	7	13	16	42	22
16	Rangers de Talca	25	4	6	15	23	40	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Recoleta	Santiago Wanderers
Club Deportes Santa Cruz	0-0 D	3-1 W
San Marcos De Arica	2-1 W	1-1 D
CD Antofagasta	2-1 W	0-0 D
Deportes Temuco	1-1 D	0-3 L
Union San Felipe	0-0 D	2-0 W
Puerto Montt	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Recoleta

LLDWDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/09	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	0-1	2-1	7	0	W
06/09	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
22/08	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
18/08	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-1	4-2	8	6	W
08/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
02/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
28/07	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	0-0	1-2	5	5	L

Santiago Wanderers

WWDDDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
09/09	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	0-1	0-3	8	2	L
05/09	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
29/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/08	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
16/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
13/08	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
08/08	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/08	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	1-0	3-1	2	6	W
25/07	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Recoleta vs Santiago Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Recoleta win (37%). Probabilities: Deportes Recoleta 37%, draw 29%, Santiago Wanderers 34%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Recoleta vs Santiago Wanderers?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Deportes Recoleta 1.17 · Santiago Wanderers 1.11), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Recoleta vs Santiago Wanderers?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.