Football · Chile Primera B · 04/10, 01:00

Prediction: Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos De Arica

Team pages: Club Deportes Santa Cruz · San Marcos De Arica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Club Deportes Santa Cruz1.03

San Marcos De Arica1.07

1X2

34% 31% 36%

Club Deportes Santa Cruz Draw San Marcos De Arica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Deportes Santa Cruz 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLDDWD

San Marcos De Arica 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Club Deportes Santa Cruz 3–1–2 San Marcos De Arica (6 last)

San Marcos De Arica1-1Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz1-0San Marcos De Arica
San Marcos De Arica2-1Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz1-0San Marcos De Arica
San Marcos De Arica3-4Club Deportes Santa Cruz
San Marcos De Arica3-2Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1462 · San Marcos De Arica 1457

	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	Draw	San Marcos De Arica
Our model	33%	33%	35%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club Deportes Santa Cruz: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	San Marcos De Arica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.7	4.2 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:15 +14’	2.60	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 3–1–2 San Marcos De Arica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Chile Primera B	San Marcos De Arica	1-1 HT 1-1	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
25/10/25 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	1-0 HT 1-0	San Marcos De Arica
15/06/25 Chile Primera B	San Marcos De Arica	2-1 HT 2-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
10/08/24 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	1-0 HT 0-0	San Marcos De Arica
01/04/24 Chile Primera B	San Marcos De Arica	3-4 HT 2-1	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
03/10/23 Chile Primera B	San Marcos De Arica	3-2 HT 0-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	25	12	9	4	43	27	45
2	Santiago Wanderers	25	12	8	5	40	26	44
3	San Luis Quillota	25	12	8	5	39	29	44
4	Magallanes	25	11	7	7	41	38	40
5	CD Antofagasta	25	10	8	7	42	26	38
6	Deportes Recoleta	25	10	8	7	36	33	38
7	San Marcos De Arica	25	9	9	7	31	23	36
8	Union Espanola	25	10	6	9	32	32	36
9	Deportes Copiapo	25	9	7	9	37	39	34
10	Puerto Montt	25	10	4	11	26	31	34
11	Deportes Temuco	25	8	8	9	40	35	32
12	Deportes Iquique	25	6	10	9	33	30	28
13	Curico Unido	25	6	9	10	22	38	24
14	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	25	4	10	11	26	38	22
15	Union San Felipe	25	5	7	13	16	42	22
16	Rangers de Talca	25	4	6	15	23	40	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	San Marcos De Arica
Deportes Recoleta	0-0 D	1-2 L
Deportes Iquique	1-0 W	1-1 D
Union Espanola	1-1 D	1-2 L
Union San Felipe	0-0 D	0-1 L
Magallanes	0-1 L	2-0 W
Curico Unido	2-1 W	3-0 W
Santiago Wanderers	1-3 L	1-1 D
Cobreloa	2-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Club Deportes Santa Cruz (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Deportes Santa Cruz

LLDWLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
10/09	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	11	W
05/09	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
29/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
22/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
18/08	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
14/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
08/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
02/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	1-3	6	6	L
25/07	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	1-2	2-4	11	4	L

San Marcos De Arica

WDDLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
09/09	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
06/09	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	0-1	2-1	5	9	W
01/09	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
22/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
16/08	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	1-2	1-2	1	6	L
13/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
08/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
01/08	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
26/07	Magallanes Chile Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	11	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos De Arica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Marcos De Arica win (36%). Probabilities: Club Deportes Santa Cruz 34%, draw 31%, San Marcos De Arica 36%.

How many goals are expected in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos De Arica?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1.03 · San Marcos De Arica 1.07), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos De Arica?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.