Football · Jamaica Premier League · 27/09, 22:30

Prediction: Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton Maroons FC

Team pages: Tivoli Gardens · Chapelton Maroons FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Tivoli Gardens1.64

Chapelton Maroons FC1.22

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Tivoli Gardens Draw Chapelton Maroons FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tivoli Gardens 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLLWD

Chapelton Maroons FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Tivoli Gardens 2–2–2 Chapelton Maroons FC (6 last)

Tivoli Gardens0-1Chapelton Maroons FC
Tivoli Gardens2-0Chapelton Maroons FC
Chapelton Maroons FC2-1Tivoli Gardens
Chapelton Maroons FC2-2Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens1-1Chapelton Maroons FC
Chapelton Maroons FC2-3Tivoli Gardens

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tivoli Gardens 1465 · Chapelton Maroons FC 1464

	Tivoli Gardens	Draw	Chapelton Maroons FC
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	46%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tivoli Gardens	Chapelton Maroons FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.7 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.3	1.9 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:49 +30’	1.95	3.30	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tivoli Gardens 2–2–2 Chapelton Maroons FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/03/26 Jamaica Premier League	Tivoli Gardens	0-1 HT 0-0	Chapelton Maroons FC
29/12/25 Jamaica Premier League	Tivoli Gardens	2-0 HT 1-0	Chapelton Maroons FC
24/08/25 Jamaica Premier League	Chapelton Maroons FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Tivoli Gardens
27/04/25 Jamaica Premier League	Chapelton Maroons FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Tivoli Gardens
12/02/25 Jamaica Premier League	Tivoli Gardens	1-1 HT 1-1	Chapelton Maroons FC
01/12/24 Jamaica Premier League	Chapelton Maroons FC	2-3 HT 1-2	Tivoli Gardens

Standings · Jamaica Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Racing United FC	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
2	Tru-Juice FC	2	1	1	0	4	0	4
3	Tivoli Gardens	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	Montego Bay Utd	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
5	Waterhouse	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
6	Arnett Gardens	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
7	Cavalier	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Molynes United FC	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
9	Chapelton Maroons FC	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Treasure Beach FC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
11	Portmore United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Dunbeholden FC	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
13	Mount Pleasant FA	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
14	Humble Lions	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tivoli Gardens	Chapelton Maroons FC
Treasure Beach FC	1-1 D	3-0 W
Portmore United	0-3 L	0-2 L
Cavalier	0-2 L	1-4 L
Molynes United FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Montego Bay Utd	1-5 L	0-2 L
Waterhouse	0-1 L	0-3 L
Mount Pleasant FA	1-0 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Chapelton Maroons FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tivoli Gardens

LWLWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
13/09	Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
06/05	Portmore United Jamaica Premier League	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Cavalier Jamaica Premier League	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
28/04	Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
22/04	Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League	1-3	1-5	4	2	L
19/04	Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
16/04	Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/04	Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/04	Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League	1-2	2-4	0	3	L

Chapelton Maroons FC

DLWLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
13/09	Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
06/05	Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League	0-5	2-7	–	–	L
03/05	Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
26/04	Spanish Town Police Jamaica Premier League	5-0	6-2	3	3	W
24/04	Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
19/04	Portmore United Jamaica Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
15/04	Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League	2-0	3-0	5	6	W
12/04	Cavalier Jamaica Premier League	1-2	1-4	6	2	L
05/04	Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League	1-0	1-1	0	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton Maroons FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tivoli Gardens win (46%). Probabilities: Tivoli Gardens 46%, draw 27%, Chapelton Maroons FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton Maroons FC?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Tivoli Gardens 1.64 · Chapelton Maroons FC 1.22), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton Maroons FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.