Football · Jamaica Premier League · 04/10, 22:30
Prediction: Montego Bay Utd vs Dunbeholden FC
Team pages: Montego Bay Utd · Dunbeholden FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Montego Bay Utd2.36
Dunbeholden FC0.81
1X2
Montego Bay Utd
Draw
Dunbeholden FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Montego Bay Utd
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Dunbeholden FC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montego Bay Utd
5–1
Dunbeholden FC
(6 last)
- Montego Bay Utd4-3Dunbeholden FC
- Montego Bay Utd1-0Dunbeholden FC
- Dunbeholden FC1-2Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd4-0Dunbeholden FC
- Dunbeholden FC2-0Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd2-1Dunbeholden FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montego Bay Utd 1527 · Dunbeholden FC 1414
| Montego Bay Utd | Draw | Dunbeholden FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montego Bay Utd (rating 1527 vs 1414).
- H2H favours Montego Bay Utd: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montego Bay Utd | Dunbeholden FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 7.1 | 3.3 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montego Bay Utd 5–0–1 Dunbeholden FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 4-3 HT 1-0 | Dunbeholden FC |
| 11/01/26 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Dunbeholden FC |
| 07/09/25 Jamaica Premier League | Dunbeholden FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 07/04/25 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Dunbeholden FC |
| 02/02/25 Jamaica Premier League | Dunbeholden FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 10/11/24 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Dunbeholden FC |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tru-Juice FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Montego Bay Utd | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Cavalier | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Racing United FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tivoli Gardens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Arnett Gardens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Molynes United FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Treasure Beach FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 13 | Dunbeholden FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montego Bay Utd | Dunbeholden FC |
|---|---|---|
| Racing United FC | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Mount Pleasant FA | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Cavalier | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Treasure Beach FC | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Harbour View FC | 3-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Tivoli Gardens | 5-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Montego Bay Utd (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montego Bay Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 18 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
3-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Dunbeholden FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 22/09 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 23/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 15/04 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montego Bay Utd vs Dunbeholden FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montego Bay Utd win (71%). Probabilities: Montego Bay Utd 71%, draw 19%, Dunbeholden FC 10%.
How many goals are expected in Montego Bay Utd vs Dunbeholden FC?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Montego Bay Utd 2.36 · Dunbeholden FC 0.81), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Montego Bay Utd vs Dunbeholden FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.