Football · Jamaica Premier League · 28/09, 03:00
Prediction: Waterhouse vs Treasure Beach FC
Team pages: Treasure Beach FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Waterhouse1.77
Treasure Beach FC0.79
1X2
Waterhouse
Draw
Treasure Beach FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Waterhouse
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Treasure Beach FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Waterhouse
3–1–1
Treasure Beach FC
(5 last)
- Waterhouse1-2Treasure Beach FC
- Waterhouse1-0Treasure Beach FC
- Treasure Beach FC0-0Waterhouse
- Treasure Beach FC2-4Waterhouse
- Waterhouse4-1Treasure Beach FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Waterhouse 1544 · Treasure Beach FC 1490
| Waterhouse | Draw | Treasure Beach FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Waterhouse (rating 1544 vs 1490).
- H2H favours Waterhouse: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Waterhouse | Treasure Beach FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 2.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Waterhouse 3–1–1 Treasure Beach FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Jamaica Premier League | Waterhouse | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Treasure Beach FC |
| 02/02/26 Jamaica Premier League | Waterhouse | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Treasure Beach FC |
| 12/10/25 Jamaica Premier League | Treasure Beach FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Waterhouse |
| 20/03/24 Jamaica Premier League | Treasure Beach FC | 2-4 HT 0-1 | Waterhouse |
| 19/12/23 Jamaica Premier League | Waterhouse | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Treasure Beach FC |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing United FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Tru-Juice FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Tivoli Gardens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Montego Bay Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Waterhouse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Arnett Gardens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Molynes United FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Treasure Beach FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 11 | Portmore United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 | Mount Pleasant FA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Waterhouse | Treasure Beach FC |
|---|---|---|
| Dunbeholden FC | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Chapelton Maroons FC | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Mount Pleasant FA | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Harbour View FC | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Tivoli Gardens | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Waterhouse (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Waterhouse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 14/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 06/05 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 28/04 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 24/04 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/04 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 12/04 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Treasure Beach FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/04 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 15/04 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 05/04 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Waterhouse vs Treasure Beach FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Waterhouse win (60%). Probabilities: Waterhouse 60%, draw 24%, Treasure Beach FC 16%.
How many goals are expected in Waterhouse vs Treasure Beach FC?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Waterhouse 1.77 · Treasure Beach FC 0.79), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Waterhouse vs Treasure Beach FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.