Football · Jamaica Premier League · 27/09, 22:30

Prediction: Dunbeholden FC vs Mount Pleasant FA

Team pages: Dunbeholden FC · Mount Pleasant FA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Dunbeholden FC0.92

Mount Pleasant FA1.95

1X2

16% 23% 61%

Dunbeholden FC Draw Mount Pleasant FA

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dunbeholden FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLLLL

Mount Pleasant FA 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Dunbeholden FC 1–1–4 Mount Pleasant FA (6 last)

Dunbeholden FC0-5Mount Pleasant FA
Mount Pleasant FA4-0Dunbeholden FC
Dunbeholden FC0-0Mount Pleasant FA
Dunbeholden FC0-3Mount Pleasant FA
Mount Pleasant FA4-0Dunbeholden FC
Dunbeholden FC3-2Mount Pleasant FA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dunbeholden FC 1424 · Mount Pleasant FA 1567

	Dunbeholden FC	Draw	Mount Pleasant FA
Our model	16%	23%	60%
Market	16%	23%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mount Pleasant FA (rating 1424 vs 1567).
H2H favours Mount Pleasant FA: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dunbeholden FC	Mount Pleasant FA
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.2	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.3	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.90

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:58 +53’	5.50	3.90	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunbeholden FC 1–1–4 Mount Pleasant FA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Jamaica Premier League	Dunbeholden FC	0-5 HT 0-1	Mount Pleasant FA
15/02/26 Jamaica Premier League	Mount Pleasant FA	4-0 HT 2-0	Dunbeholden FC
07/12/25 Jamaica Premier League	Dunbeholden FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Mount Pleasant FA
09/03/25 Jamaica Premier League	Dunbeholden FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Mount Pleasant FA
05/01/25 Jamaica Premier League	Mount Pleasant FA	4-0 HT 2-0	Dunbeholden FC
30/10/24 Jamaica Premier League	Dunbeholden FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Mount Pleasant FA

Standings · Jamaica Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Racing United FC	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
2	Tru-Juice FC	2	1	1	0	4	0	4
3	Tivoli Gardens	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	Montego Bay Utd	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
5	Waterhouse	1	1	0	0	5	0	3
6	Arnett Gardens	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
7	Cavalier	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Molynes United FC	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
9	Chapelton Maroons FC	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Treasure Beach FC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
11	Portmore United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Dunbeholden FC	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
13	Mount Pleasant FA	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
14	Humble Lions	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dunbeholden FC	Mount Pleasant FA
Waterhouse	0-4 L	2-1 W
Treasure Beach FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Racing United FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mount Pleasant FA (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dunbeholden FC

LWDLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
13/09	Cavalier Jamaica Premier League	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
06/05	Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
03/05	Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
26/04	Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
23/04	Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League	2-0	4-0	4	0	W
19/04	Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
15/04	Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
12/04	Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/04	Spanish Town Police Jamaica Premier League	1-2	1-4	12	2	L

Mount Pleasant FA

DWWWWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
13/09	Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
25/05	Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League	1-0	3-2	3	3	W
21/05	Portmore United Jamaica Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	7	L
18/05	Portmore United Jamaica Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
06/05	Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
03/05	Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
28/04	Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League	1-0	2-1	8	7	W
24/04	Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League	2-2	5-2	4	5	W
19/04	Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League	0-1	2-2	10	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dunbeholden FC vs Mount Pleasant FA?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mount Pleasant FA win (61%). Probabilities: Dunbeholden FC 16%, draw 23%, Mount Pleasant FA 61%.

How many goals are expected in Dunbeholden FC vs Mount Pleasant FA?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Dunbeholden FC 0.92 · Mount Pleasant FA 1.95), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dunbeholden FC vs Mount Pleasant FA?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.