Football · Jamaica Premier League · 08/11, 21:00
Prediction: Mount Pleasant FA vs Tivoli Gardens
Team pages: Mount Pleasant FA · Tivoli Gardens
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Mount Pleasant FA1.87
Tivoli Gardens0.96
1X2
Mount Pleasant FA
Draw
Tivoli Gardens
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Mount Pleasant FA
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Tivoli Gardens
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mount Pleasant FA
3–2–1
Tivoli Gardens
(6 last)
- Tivoli Gardens1-0Mount Pleasant FA
- Tivoli Gardens1-1Mount Pleasant FA
- Mount Pleasant FA5-0Tivoli Gardens
- Mount Pleasant FA0-0Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens0-1Mount Pleasant FA
- Mount Pleasant FA1-0Tivoli Gardens
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mount Pleasant FA 1583 · Tivoli Gardens 1487
| Mount Pleasant FA | Draw | Tivoli Gardens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mount Pleasant FA (rating 1583 vs 1487).
- H2H favours Mount Pleasant FA: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mount Pleasant FA | Tivoli Gardens | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mount Pleasant FA 3–2–1 Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 04/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 11/12/25 Jamaica Premier League | Mount Pleasant FA | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 30/03/25 Jamaica Premier League | Mount Pleasant FA | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 26/01/25 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 27/10/24 Jamaica Premier League | Mount Pleasant FA | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tivoli Gardens |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterhouse | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 18 |
| 2 | Tru-Juice FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Racing United FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Montego Bay Utd | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Tivoli Gardens | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Mount Pleasant FA | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Portmore United | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Arnett Gardens | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 10 |
| 9 | Cavalier | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 10 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 9 |
| 11 | Dunbeholden FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 6 |
| 12 | Molynes United FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 6 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach FC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 5 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mount Pleasant FA | Tivoli Gardens |
|---|---|---|
| Arnett Gardens | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Cavalier | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Dunbeholden FC | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Racing United FC | 0-1 L | 3-4 L |
| Tru-Juice FC | 0-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Portmore United | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mount Pleasant FA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 02/11 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 27/10 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/10 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/10 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/10 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 04/10 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mount Pleasant FA vs Tivoli Gardens?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mount Pleasant FA win (58%). Probabilities: Mount Pleasant FA 58%, draw 23%, Tivoli Gardens 18%.
How many goals are expected in Mount Pleasant FA vs Tivoli Gardens?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Mount Pleasant FA 1.87 · Tivoli Gardens 0.96), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mount Pleasant FA vs Tivoli Gardens?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.