Football · Jamaica Premier League · 20/09, 22:30
Prediction: Treasure Beach FC vs Tivoli Gardens
Team pages: Treasure Beach FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Treasure Beach FC1.4
Tivoli Gardens1.49
1X2
Treasure Beach FC
Draw
Tivoli Gardens
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Treasure Beach FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Tivoli Gardens
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Treasure Beach FC
2–1–2
Tivoli Gardens
(5 last)
- Treasure Beach FC4-2Tivoli Gardens
- Treasure Beach FC4-2Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens0-0Treasure Beach FC
- Treasure Beach FC0-5Tivoli Gardens
- Tivoli Gardens3-2Treasure Beach FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Treasure Beach FC 1507 · Tivoli Gardens 1466
| Treasure Beach FC | Draw | Tivoli Gardens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Treasure Beach FC (rating 1507 vs 1466).
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Treasure Beach FC | Tivoli Gardens | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.5 | 2.1 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Treasure Beach FC 2–1–2 Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Jamaica Premier League | Treasure Beach FC | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 01/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Treasure Beach FC | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 28/01/26 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Treasure Beach FC |
| 03/03/24 Jamaica Premier League | Treasure Beach FC | 0-5 HT 0-4 | Tivoli Gardens |
| 05/12/23 Jamaica Premier League | Tivoli Gardens | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Treasure Beach FC |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tru-Juice FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Tivoli Gardens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Montego Bay Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Molynes United FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Racing United FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Portmore United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Waterhouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Arnett Gardens | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | Treasure Beach FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Dunbeholden FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Humble Lions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Mount Pleasant FA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Treasure Beach FC | Tivoli Gardens |
|---|---|---|
| Molynes United FC | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Montego Bay Utd | 2-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Dunbeholden FC | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Waterhouse | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Mount Pleasant FA | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Harbour View FC | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Treasure Beach FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/04 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 15/04 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 05/04 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 31/03 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
Tivoli Gardens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 28/04 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 16/04 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Treasure Beach FC vs Tivoli Gardens?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tivoli Gardens win (38%). Probabilities: Treasure Beach FC 34%, draw 28%, Tivoli Gardens 38%.
How many goals are expected in Treasure Beach FC vs Tivoli Gardens?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Treasure Beach FC 1.4 · Tivoli Gardens 1.49), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Treasure Beach FC vs Tivoli Gardens?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.